In the next 18 months there will be many very obvious signs that everyone will be able to see and follow our currencies demise. The evidence will be found in the two most noticeable commodities we purchase every week and that’s the price of Gasoline and food. While the governments’ bureau of labor and statistics is telling us we have no inflation reported to be 1.1% the cost of Gasoline and food will be skyrocketing upward.
In the last report out December 15, 2010 the headline number on inflation came out at .8% or 8/10 of one percent. These numbers are calculated on a monthly bases and it seems no one ever looks at what’s in the reports. Here is the increased cost of the two most important items in America. The CPI report shows the last 12 month gasoline has increased 9.5%. Then if we look at food over the 12 month period we get 1.4% increase in price. The total of all items in all categories clams’ inflation is running at 1.1% per year. I think we all know that something is not right with these numbers. The cost of gasoline in just the last 3 months is up 20% where I live and I have seen that in other areas of the country is a lot higher.
But the November Producer Price Index (PPI) for finished goods surged 0.8 percent it doubles most economists’ estimates. Moreover, the inflation is not stemming just from rising energy prices. Overall, the cost of food rose 1 full percentage point in November, which is equivalent to 12 percent annual inflation rate. Egg prices led the way higher, jumping 23 percent in November, while the price of fruit jumped an astounding 14 percent. Think these are one-time, freak price jumps? Think again, because since the first of this month… the price of corn is up more than 3 percent … coffee is up more than 8 percent … sugar is up 8.49 percent … oats are up nearly 6 percent … while cotton prices are up more than 16 percent — all of this in just 15 days!
The consumer price index hasn’t started jumping yet. But just like night follows day, it will as companies pass on higher wholesale costs. The Fed SAID it would continue its QE2 policy, saying it would “promote a stronger pace of economic recovery” … But that reckless policy is driving interest rates skyward! In fact, two-year Treasury yields have doubled in 29 trading days. Five-year yields have surged 102 basis points, or 1.02 percentage points, while 10-year yields just hit a seven-month high. Thirty-year municipal bond yields soared to a 16-month high, as thirty-year mortgage rates jumped to the highest since the tail end of the spring home buying season.
So not only is the Fed failing to promote recovery by driving borrowing costs down It’s actually hindering the recovery by driving costs up. Yet in the Fed’s fantasy world, everything is peachy keen! With interest rates rising and the Fed continuing to print money and buy bonds, despite a zero percent success rate so far, here comes hyperinflation!
The price of gasoline has gone from under $2.50 a gallon to $3.00 that is a 20% increase in just 3 months. I do my own shopping and I believe food has gone up more than 1.4% in the last year. Any way my point is what we really need to buy every week is climbing at a much greater rate than the reports show. This is nothing new as I have notice this to be the case all my years of running a business. But in the following months because of the intentional devaluation of the dollar, the cost of petroleum products and food will increase as the dollar devalues against all other currencies. This is what happens when a country intentionally devalues its currency. Ben Bernanke has said we need to create some inflation because it’s to low at 1.1%.
So here is what’s taking place right now and it’s the truth. I will explain how this will get out of control real fast. We will start with what the news media is referring to as QE-2 which translated means quantitative easing. The amount of money they are going to print or digitize is $600 Billion. Bernanke claims the purpose is to create liquidity in the banking system. The true reason is to finance the federal deficit of $110 billion a month. There are just moving digits from one Colum of a computer program and moving the digits to another Colum, there not even printing the money anymore. This has to be added to the federal deficit spending for all of 2008 and up to the end of 2010 and that dollar amount is around $3.9 trillion. Now we are adding $600 Billion for a total of $4.5 trillion. The money is getting into the streets with monthly government spending on entitlement programs.
This QE-2 money will run out buy April of 2011, so what happens next? QE-3 will be another $600 billion and Ben Bernanke said this would be the case if needed and it will be needed. There’s no end in sight with the federal budget deficits of 1.55 trillion for 2011. That’s $129 billion on average added each month to finance the gap between government revenue and government spending. The QE-3 will run out by September 2011. So what comes next? QE-4, 5 and 6 there is no end in sight.
Why does this matter and why should you care? As the Federal Reserve keeps propping up federal spending deficits over the short period of the next 18 months we will destroy what confidence is left in our paper currency. This means the prices of crude oil from were ever we do import it from will continue to rise with the continued intentional devaluation of the dollar. We import 72% of all the crude oil we use and we are not in control of the price. American oil companies only control 3% of the world oil supplies. Well why does this matter? For every dollar a gallon the price goes up it takes $27 billion each month out of Americans pockets they would otherwise spend on something else. We are not buying additional product we are just paying a lot more for it. $4.00 a gallon gasoline by July of 2008 is part of what caused the last recession or the one we are still in, that lead to a worldwide bank collapse. That recession started in December of 2007. If you find a chart of the price of gasoline and a chart for unemployment as the cost of gas went up so did unemployment. They move in lockstep for the following reasons.
On a yearly base $1 in additional cost to a gallon of gas is about $300 billion that goes missing for other purchases. I believe the threshold for decline in other economic activity due to the price of gas is $2.50 a gallon and once we get above that we start to lose jobs because all that money goes missing. There is also the secondary affect the higher price of crude pushes up the cost of food and all other energy related categories. There is also another problem and its ethanol that is added to the gasoline. This comes from corn and corn is also the main food use for cattle, chickens and all farm animals. As we burn ethanol up we are forcing the cost up for farmers to feed their animals and this has a direct affect on the cost of all our food supply on top of the higher price from the higher cost of crude oil.
In 2011 we can look for much higher Gasoline prices and much higher food prices. It will look like this by the end of 2011, gasoline will double to $5.00 a gallon and food will be up about 30%. The Bureau of labor and statistics will be telling us we have just 5% inflation. This is exactly what they were telling us in July of 2008 when gasoline was $4.00 a gallon in most parts of the country and in Crazy left coast California gasoline was over $5.00 a gallon. Most of the price increase in 2008 was from January to July or in just 7 months. That was all from speculation in the commodities market, not from the intentional devaluation of the dollar.
The inflation of the currency has a quantitative number of jobs losses that will come from the money gone missing from the higher gas prices. Based on my numbers and numbers from the department of labor, I have calculated that for every $1.00 a gallon or $27 billion each month the job cost is 183,828 jobs that disappear with the money. On yearly bases that is 2,205,936 lost jobs and this doesn’t count all the income lost from the jobs incomes that no longer exist that will forces even more job losses. This is already happening in October and November of 2010 the last two unemployment reports have shown in the body of the report not the headline number, we have lost 503,000 jobs from the total number of jobs in the economic system. This coincides with the rising price of crude oil as it has crept up for the last three months. The headline numbers were positive, but just like all government reports they have diluted them in such a way the true state of the economy doesn’t show up until 3 to 6 months later, if it shows up at all. The interior of the reports show a decline in the number of people with jobs was negative 330,000 for October and 173,000 for November. So get ready for a wild ride as prices go back to $4.00 and then to $5.00 by the end of 2011
The higher cost of food has the same results as the higher price of gas. Food has to be replenished on weekly bases we eat it and it disappears and if it cost more for the same amount of product the money just disappears. The money doesn’t exist anymore to purchase other products and the economy slows even more and even more jobs are lost. Currently the unemployment rate is at 9.8 % for November 2010. I expect at the very least we will lose at least another 6 million jobs by the end of 2011 if the above scenario plays out. This will put the unemployment rate at around 13% to 14% by early 2012, which will be catastrophic. The value of the dollar will have its ups and downs because of Europe’s economic problems but the long term direction over the next 18 months will be the same, a severe devaluation of the dollar. So what happens next?
If you want to know the whole story on how we got into this position and were all this will take us and our country you have to buy my book called 2012: what’s really going to happen in 2012. There are no prophecies in the book, it’s not about wizards or any hocus pocus codes. It’s about sound economic practices that we have ignored within our own governments policies and how the very government we expect to protect the country has planned our demise and why. I show the proof based on simple math, a little common sense and the current history of the last 10 years to get us right where we are.
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