Feeds:
Posts
Comments

Archive for the ‘economics politics’ Category

We don’t really have to January 2, 2013 to go off the fiscal cliff. It’s December 4, 2012 and congress goes on Christmas vacation Friday December 14th 2012 and they don’t come back till after we fall off the cliff. Taxmageddon will show up in the stock markets and will come well before January 1, 2013. If no deal is done before that date of Friday December 14th 2012. (There won’t be any deal) The stock market will show the results prior to the date not afterwards. If you have a 401-k or any other investment in stocks or bonds brace yourself for heavy losses.

This is a warning on Friday December 14th or in just 10 days all stock markets will start a rapid decline worldwide and this will continue into Monday the 17th and all the way to Friday the 21st December 2012 if no deal is done. The republicans will stay in Washington but the democrat controlled Senate will be ordered shut down by Harry read and the correction or crash will take place. The democrats will blame the republicans as that is what they are already doing even before there’s anything to blame anyone for. What will the blame game be like after markets crash? Friday December 14 is the normal scheduled Christmas break for congress.

The real cliff comes from a market reaction to the lack of any deal that stops America’s economy from a $600 billion shock. That shock comes from the shift in taxes and spending equal to a 4% negative to GDP and the biggest losses will not be the taxes themselves but the market’s reaction to those tax increases could cost trillions of dollars in lost stock values.

If the stock market’s losses are 2000 points on the DJIA for example in dollars it is equal to $2 trillion in lost stock values. This is the true result of Taxmageddon if congress allows us to go off the Cliff. It has been said for every 1000 points lost on the DJIA is approximately $1 trillion is lost in stock values across all U.S. markets.

Currently Republicans have no options to avoid the fiscal Clift or taxmageddon that will not destroy the economy and all the choices that democrats will allow to pass the senate will force a recession. All the options are really bad and the only one that will work for just a little while is keep everything the way it is and extend the current tax rates, but Obama has said and he insists he will not except that outcome of kicking the can down the road. If anyone is holding the middle class hostage it is Obama not the republicans in the house. Obama wants a grand bargain for which there is no good economic out come for anything he wants, what Obama wants will cost millions of jobs. That’s not an option Republicans can agree to.

Obama has proven over the last 4 years he understands nothing about economics, business or how jobs are created. It needs to be said Obama’s an idiot to top all idiots; he is the king of fools and will lead America to its complete economic destruction in the next few weeks. Obama’s winning of the election doesn’t prove his genius; it just proves how stupid the American people have become, all because of Obama phones that cheaply bought votes with tax payer’s money. (That is if he really won? As I believe the election was a complete fraud)

http://gulagbound.com/35972/nationwide-white-votes-down-by-16m-smell-like-election-tampering/#.UKEgkmfNPFw

Obama says he will only accept a full 4.9% tax increase to the wealthiest tax payers and they are the job creators. That’s not a bumper sticker slogan anymore or a political talking point, it is just the facts. By the numbers it can be proven true that what Obama is demanding will certainly put us in a recession according to the congressional budget office = CBO. Let’s look at what faces the American people in the next few weeks and what the democrats have done in the past 6 years of the control of congress since January 2007. The American people have been setup with this no win scenario that we now have and democrats will be able to blame it all on the republicans no matter what republicans do because democrats control 85% of what is so-called the main stream media.

If congress does nothing we get the full force of the fiscal Clift which is a $600 billion shift in taxes and spending cuts. The media has been talking about this fiscal Clift but no one clearly explains exactly what that means. I don’t think any of media types are smart enough to see what it is or what it truly means for the economy, but I will attempt to explain it here. It’s not a matter of speculation it’s just really simple math and understanding economics.

If Republicans do what Obama and the liberal progressive democrats wants here is what the congressional budget office said about a deal republicans offered to raise taxes on the wealthy in the budget act of 2011 debt ceiling increase that threaten to shut down parts of government.

The CBO scored the proposal the republicans offered in 2011 that would raise taxes on the wealthy by roughly $80 Billion. The result was a recession and negative GDP growth of .5% or ½ %. They also said it would force 700,000 private sector jobs to be lost and by the end of 2013 push the unemployment rate from the current rate up to 9.1%. Again this was in 2011 and now Obama and the democrats want double or two times that much to $160 Billion in higher taxes from the job creators or the wealthy and that means twice the job losses to 1.4 million and twice the negative GDP growth -1%. This is what Obama wants; this is his so-called grand bargain. Only a complete idiot would think that’s a good idea, but that’s just Obama.

This doubling of higher taxes to the wealthy tax payers is the option that Obama is giving the republicans and this is not an option republicans can except, but it is insanity to ask for a tax increase that will force 1.4 million jobs to be lost to the middle class then lie about wanting to protect the middle class and force a recession in an already very weak economy that will loss 1.4 million jobs in the middle class. (Twisted logic) The only ones here protecting the middle class is the republicans not Obama.

How can the republicans agree to such an insane proposal when Republicans know it will cost so many jobs in the middle class and force us into a recession at the cost 1.4 million middle class jobs? They cannot. What sane person would vote for that? No sane person would vote for Obama’s so-called grand bargain and it’s not a deal of any acceptable kind. This whole Obama so-called deal is like trying to make a bargain with a terrorist who wants to kill you.

The Republicans have offered some concessions to higher taxes on the wealthy in recent discussions, but not the $80 billion and certainly not the $160 billion as the economy is weaker now then in early 2011 and any sizeable tax increase would not be good for the economy. There is no such thing as a grand bargain in what Obama is asking for; it’s more like a grand screwing to the American worker. Republicans are being asked to accept our grand economic destruction and the complete collapse of America’s economy into a deep recession or will it be a depression?

Taxes on the wealthy doesn’t include the automatic spending cuts from The Budget Control Act of 2011 said to be about $150 billion more that comes out of the economy and will have an additional negative effect on the economy. Obama is not trying to fix our fiscal issues and problems; Obama is trying to destroy the Republican Party and America along with it. I am all for spending cuts we need to shrink the spending of the federal government but not this way, not while taxing the crap out of everyone and forcing a depression like economy. These budget cuts should be done in increments’ in separate pieces of legislation over time slowing as the economy grows. I know this will not happen but that is the way it should happen.

The options the republicans have are unacceptable and the whole problem with the country is making deals or compromising with the democrats a party that wants to intentionally destroy the country. Obama and the democrats have found a way to blame the whole thing on the Republican Party but the truth is the whole thing was contrived by the democrats. The democrats want America to go off the fiscal Clift because they can blame any deal and all of them are bad on the Republican Party.  No matter whose fault it really is the liberal fringe lame stream news media will carry the lie and the people will believe the lie. America’s favorite pastime is blaming someone else for what they did to themselves by voting for democrats and Obama to get the free stuff.

I have told you about what the CBO has said about just taxing the wealthy and it has a really bad outcome and now let’s have a look at the math on the even bigger problem going completely off the $600 billion cliff. There is very big chance of the whole economy completely falling apart if the full force of taxmageddon if the existing law isn’t changed. The cost is a dramatic 4% of GDP just disappears into thin air. This will have the same economic effect as a gallon of gasoline going from $3.50 a gallon to $6.00 a gallon. You can probably relate to that and you know what that will do to your finances then multiply that time 140 million working Americans and the national fleet of 250 million cars. I did do the math based on our usage and the $600 billion taxmageddon it’s a very close estimate. This is an example for the effects and it will not necessarily affect the price of gas but the overall economic effect will be the same. (Catastrophic)

This taxmageddon automatically just happens in less than 4 weeks on January 1st 2013 if congress does nothing because this is already the law. Again stock markets will react before that date of January 1, 2013 not after. The optimism market players have that congress will stop taxmageddon comes from fantasies of the media and or wishful thinking.

The last 2 years has proven we have a senate that refuses to bring anything that passes the house to be allowed an up or down vote. At last count the republican controlled House of Representatives has passed 39 bills and Harry Reid hasn’t allowed any of them to go to the floor of the Senate for a vote. The house of representatives is functioning just fine passing 39 bills proves that. It is the Senate and or Harry Reid that is completely dysfunctional. The house has also passed 2 bills to fix the Clift or taxmageddon but dirty Harry wont allow a vote on either one. The truth is the democrats are screwing things up they are the dysfunctional party and they want to force America to go off the fiscal Clift. There purpose is to destroy the Republican Party and America with them. Will the democrat’s devious plan work?

If congress does nothing we get the full force of the fiscal Clift the media has been taking about but no one clearly explains exactly what that means to you and the whole country and the whole world will suffer great economic distress from our taxmageddon. I don’t think any of them are smart enough to see what it really means but I will attempt to explain more clearly here.

Here is what taxmageddon or the fiscal Clift means to you and to the whole economy and this number seems to get bigger by the week as more deductions are found that just go away and the higher total of the taxes mount up. The total amount of higher taxes collected from the wealthy and the middle class and the working poor (now 28 million that now pay no taxes at all and probably voted for Obama) is now $ 538 Billion in higher taxes as all tax rates go up 5% higher than they are now and around 20 tax deductions go away. This huge number of $ 538 Billion and based on the CBO estimated results of what $80 billion in higher taxes to only the wealthy was projected to do can be used as a guideline to calculate the economic impact of going off the Clift or taxmageddon.

The CBO has currently stated they cannot do an estimate on taxmageddon deal because they need the legislation to score the cost to the economy but that legislation doesn’t exist yet so we have to use the last CBO estimate as a basis on the budget act of 2011 debt deal that got us in this mess.

The higher tax of taxmageddon of $ 538 Billion on every one that works or has taxable income is 6.7 times the $80 Billion scored by the congressional budget office in 2011. Logically and mathematically the higher taxes would have the same multiple in its negative economic effects of 6.7 times the money that goes missing from the private sector economy into the black hole of government deficits of $1.1 trillion for 2012. So the math is 6.7 times the 700,000 lost jobs or 4,690,000 jobs lost. The negative growth rate of -.5% will be 6.7 times more or -3.35% This is to show the trend that when this much money being taken from the private sector in just simple straight math and it shows it will be catastrophic for the economy and jobs. This will be worse than the 2008 bank collapse because it doesn’t stop this time. No big stock market corrections or crashes are in the CBO estimates, there not allowed to do that.

I can tell you it will be a lot worse than any CBO estimate and there are a number of reasons. Here are just a few: first people will change their spending habits according to affordability after a stock market correction or a market crash. The working population or the tax payers that support the whole economy and socialist system will pull back spending as 50% of the working population are somehow invested in the stock market like in a 401k retirement program and that hurts business even more as everyone feels poorer and spends less. Adding to the devastation caused from the $538 Billion in higher taxes. The stock markets worldwide will adjust to America going into a recession along with all American stock markets as we are all tied together economically whether we like it or not that’s just the way it is. The CBO is not allowed to speculate on how markets will react they have a stricter set of guidelines and that’s why they are way off on most of their estimates long-term. There estimates are good for a few weeks to maybe 6 months, after that as time goes by their longer term estimate are useless.

No matter what the outcome the Republicans will be blamed for it. The election didn’t change anything and we will get 4 more years of congressional gridlock and 4 more years of an Obama’s dictatorship.

Some examples you can reference to see how people react and change their spending habits after any economic catastrophe is the 2008 bank collapse the 1987 stock market crash and the September 11, 2001 attack on the twin towers in New York. People just stopped spending and the economy went directly into a recession and my point is – things will get a lot worse than the -3.35% negative economic decline and will more likely be in the 6% negative GDP range just like after the 2008 bank collapse and the first quarter of 2009 was negative – 6% GDP and we have still not fully recovered from that. On top of that the Federal Reserve can no longer bail anyone out they are out of options but they can take over the banks and federalize them.

The overall dynamics of the economy has changed dramatically since 2008. This decline will be worse than any decline before because of the huge $16.4 trillion total deficits and a much larger portion of that are held within the banking system now in 2012 than in the 2008 bank collapse. A GDP growing at only 2% and Inflation said to be low at 2.2% if you believe that? The economy isn’t really growing at all, it’s the inflation that makes it seem like it is. We are in a much weaker position economically in 2012 than in 2008. 

This is a worldwide problem as all the major economies are doing the same thing. The total world-wide printing by governments has increased $21 trillion in just the last 6 years and most of that new debt is in the banking system.

The middle class with 401k Retirement plans or any money involved in the markets stocks or bonds will likely lose 40% to 60% of their money in those retirement accounts. Just like in 2008 after the banks froze up and this is just to start with, so the working people who support the economy will not be spending at the same rates they are now and all the false optimism will be forced away with a collapse coming in just 10 days when congress goes home for Christmas vacations while the economy through the stock markets just falls apart.

I have followed and been directly involved in every economic catastrophe since Jimmy Carter was president as a business owner and Obama and the democrats’ have set us up for the biggest collapse in world history. (The political economy)

In the last 4 years since the bank collapse of 2008 here is what has changed and will give us a multiple of 3 to 4 times worse than in the last bubble bursting and all created by the Federal Reserve poor economic and monetary policies. The banks have been buying trillions in U.S. treasury debt adding to what they already hold and adding trillions to the problem because the Federal Reserve has been making up phony money with these dollar amounts in trillions and creating a new much larger bubble than we had in 2008. The Federal Reserve has been buying old debt with the Q.E 1-2-3, and the so-called twists and the banks have been investing some of the money into the stock markets and commodities as well and repurchasing new federal debt with the very same money the Federal Reserve has been putting into the banks. (A Ponzi scheme; if you or me did this we would go to jail for a very long time like Burney Madoff)

This pumping of artificial money into markets has artificially inflated stock prices by pumping trillions of dollars into the banks creating money out of thin air with nothing but faith to back it up. Markets will collapse quickly as that faith will evaporate in a steep decline or even worse a panic sell off like in the 1987 crash and like all other crashes will take everyone by surprise. The banks are holding this huge multi trillion-dollar bag of dogey doo in U.S. government debt and banks will be blamed once again for what the politicians did or didn’t do. This is a 1934 cartoon from the New York Times. This has happened before.

 65312741

The banks and the biggest investment firms which are banks are the biggest players in the artificially propped up stock markets and the bond markets. This is a worldwide condition that every government and economy in the world has been doing the same thing for the last 4 years. This bubble only needs a trigger to set it off and I believe the trigger is taxmageddon that comes in 10 days. This starts on December 14, 2012. The markets will decline and this decline will continue till Friday the 21st of December. The reason it stops there is because the 25th is Christmas day holiday and markets will be closed Saturday December 22nd to Wednesday the 26th of December. After that all the damage will be done and whatever congress and Obama do after that will make no difference, it’s too late to fix anything once the markets correct or collapse.

The economic losses will be similar to a repeat of the 2008 bank collapse only multiplied times 3 to 4 of what happen in 2008. There will be no rescue from the Federal Reserve and no bailouts of the banks as the federal government with the Dodd, Frank banking act allows the government to just take over the whole banking system there are no limits to what the government can do now under Dodd, Frank and that’s what will happen as that’s exactly what the bill is meant to do. Nationalize the banking system and here we go to the government controlling everything. (Communism) So what’s next? They’re going to steal all your money no matter where it is.

How much do you trust the government having control of all your savings and what do you think they will do with it once they have legally taken control of the banks and nationalizing the whole banking system and all the money? What did they do with the social security money? They spent it all, need I say more? If or when this happens think about what you will do if you have savings in the bank and that’s what everyone else will do. The results will be Runs on the banks just like in the great depression and finally just closing the banks as they run out of paper and digits in the computers. Banks only have about 10% of their deposits in cash or liquid assets the rest is loaned out to someone and even loaned to other banks that may go bankrupt and close their doors these loses quickly dominos through the entire banking system no matter who owns them.

The Federal Reserve has no bullets left and the bazooka doesn’t exist anymore.

In 2008 prior to the collapse of the banks the federal deficit total was about $9.6 trillion and its now $16.4 trillion. The interest rate set by the Federal Reserve was 5% in 2008 now its .5 or ½% it can’t get any lower than zero and lowering it 4.5% has done little good for the economy and reducing it, another ½% won’t make any difference after a market crash. We also will have reached the current debt ceiling of $16.4 trillion by the last week of December 2012 or first week of January 2013. Little has been said about this debt ceiling being reached but their parts of a grand deal Obama wants that’s no deal at all and will not come.

If I wanted to destroy America I would have done everything the democrats did since they took control of congress in January 2007 and I would refuse to change anything just as democrats and Obama have done and continue to do. If I wanted to destroy America I wouldn’t change a thing.

We are currently barrowing nearly $100 billion a month for deficit spending and just printing and digitizing most of that up in computers the paper doesn’t even exist, it’s mostly cyber money on a hard drive in computers. If markets do come crashing down in 2 weeks with the debt ceiling increase tied to a tax increase bill that will not come and congress is out on vacation it all comes to a head at the same time. Once things do fall apart it’s too late to fix the damage already done.

This is the perfect storm and America’s judgment day has arrived. If congress does pass something and it’s not economically sound like raising taxes on the wealthiest 2% the exact same thing will happen and markets will react as if congress did nothing at all. We will all pay a price for the people who backed Obama and voted for him. The utopia Democrats all dreamed of and like they have dreamed of in socialist Europe for the last 150 years that utopia never did materialize and will never come for America either. What is coming will be more like the opening of the gates of hell.

The Federal Reserve is a bank. It is not a branch of government and isn’t controlled by congress directly. When this bubble bursts there’s not enough money in the world to fix this crash. The Federal Reserve holds around $4 trillion in its own issued debt and when the crap hits the fan this time the Federal reserve bank will be just as broken as the banking system they artificially propped up for the last 4 years and its all self-inflicted from poor monetary policy’s mostly since 2007. They think they have it under control but if they did we wouldn’t be in this catastrophic position.

I am a realist and do not hope for any better outcome for which there is no evidence of any possible better outcome. Hope is like wishing for something it only works in fairy tales but not so much in the real world. I have watched and participated in the political economy for over 30 years and I know what the politicians will do before they know what they’re going to do.

There are no grand deals to be made and any choices they do make will be bad ones for the economy. The policies of the federal government and the democratic controlled congress have put us in a box we cannot get out of. All of the possible outcomes stink. The poorly contrived political economic policies of the past our going to haunt us and our children through eternity and the bill is coming due now,  in the next few weeks not in 5-10 or 20 years.

We are about to witness the destruction of America through its economy from within our own elected government. This is all absolutely intentional it is not by accident that this is going to happen. Liberal progressive Democrats are just the tool or the useful Idiots for the destruction of America. There is someone else behind all this but this article is not about that.

The visible and undeniable end of America starts in 10 days. Obama is not trying to fix our fiscal Issues and Problems; His s trying to destroy the Republicans and to do that Obama’s going to destroy the economy and the country with it.

Congress goes from one screw up to the next screw up and the reason for this is the compromise of capitalism in trade offs for a larger more expensive government and more socialism and wealth redistribution. This will only end when we collapse under the weight of too much socialism, the government will go away with it and that’s weeks away not years. The deal Obama and the democrat controlled senate offers are going to collapse the economy. Keeping taxes the same for everyone will just put off the date as it will come up again.

The bottom line on taxmageddon or the so-called cliff is no matter what happens Americans gets screwed.

 If we get exactly all that Obama’s asking for we go off the cliff and into a deep recession. The congressional budget office has stated this and I agree.

 If congress does nothing at all we go of the bigger cliff. So no matter what: deal or no deal we go off the cliff. That’s the deal, we go off the cliff.

 The only alternative is keeping all tax rates at their current levels for everyone and Obama said that’s not acceptable. So we go off the cliff.

 The republicans are already being blamed for this but they haven’t been in control of congress since 2006 and they still are not in control but the lying media says republicans are to blame.

  Lou Dobbs agrees with me 

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/1998558236001/fiscal-cliff-is-no-joke

Paul Ryan: That leads us to conclude Obama’s trying to get us to our fiscal cliff,” Ryan said. “He doesn’t want to come to the middle.”

http://dailycaller.com/2012/12/04/paul-ryan-addresses-fiscal-cliff-were-nowhere-were-farther-than-where-we-started/

Advertisements

Read Full Post »

Painting a happy face on this taxmageddon is just putting lip stick on a pig. It’s just 45 days away until the US falls off the fiscal cliff and around $600 billion or 4% of Gross domestic product goes into the black hole of deficit spending from $450 billion in higher taxes on everyone not just the rich and an automatic $150 billion in spending cuts for a total of $600 billion shift in economic activity. For those with poor math skills pay attention to this, the taxes are not a plus to the GDP it is taken from existing GDP wages to employees and profits of companies

 

The current GDP growth rate is only 1.7% so far in 2012 and 4% of that will shift into the oblivion of deficit spending and deficit reduction and still leave us with an additional shortfall of $600 Billion in deficit spending. The CBO – congressional budget office has stated in their testimony to congress that just an increase in taxes on the rich of an estimated $80 Billion in tax increases will force a lose in jobs of 700,000 and a negative .5% GDP (½%) and or a recession. Now that number is just on the wealthiest and business owners has doubled to $160 billion a year in higher taxes to the wealthiest since the election and the simple math is negative -1% GDP and 1.5 million jobs lost just from taxing the rich not the taxmageddon that will tax the crap out of everyone and everything which is 3 times that number if they don’t do anything.

 

If you allow the bush tax cuts to expire January 1, 2013 than taxes go up on everyone including 25 million low-income Americans that don’t pay any federal tax at all will pay taxes. This is what the democrats voted for on November 6 2012 and all this will at the very least cause a decline in real terms of GDP gone missing of a negative – 2.5% of the GDP growth rate figured strate line without the projection of how businesses will react or how the spending habits of people will change and they will change dramatically more negative than a -2.5% growth rate decline.

 

The dollar amount lost by doing nothing and allowing current law to expire on January 1, 2013 and then tax rates go up 5% on every one who works and or pays taxes. it will cost the American workers and the rich $450 billion total and 150 billion in spending cuts totaling $600 billion then my estimate of job losses of 5 times the 700,000 jobs or 3.5 million jobs lost and the job losses will happen as fast as the money disappears from paychecks every week. The moneys just not there anymore for us to spend or save as it is taxed away at a rate of $1.2 billion a day from higher taxes to everyone. I want to repeat this part and make this clear, this is already the law, congress doesn’t have to vote on anything the existing laws will allow this to happen January 1, 2013 and congress doesn’t need to vote on anything it’s automatic. Next is why a deal will not be made and everyone working will get the 5% tax increase unless you move out of the country or your state succeeds from the union which neither is likely.

 

The political blame games and the real goals of the Democratic Party are why no deals will be made and why we will go off this fiscal Clift or so-called taxmageddon. This will be once again blamed on the republicans for what the democrats did. (There’s a 100 year history of this) The progressive, liberal democratic parties goal has been and still is to destroy the constitutional America we know and change us into a socialist dictatorship (I believe all the evidence shows we are already a socialist dictatorship and have been the last 3 years and 10 months and even possibly the last 12 years) and doing away with the constitution and replacing it with a communist constitution and this taxmageddon is exactly what the democrats need to do that and they will try to make it look like the republicans fault (this is already being done) and the lame stream liberal progressive socialist media will help them do it with their normal lies and disinformation.

 

Here is what to expect in the next 47 days. A lot of grand standing by democrats telling you conservatives economic policies are why the economies is so bad and its Bush’s fault even know the democrats have controlled congress for almost the last 6 years.

 

It’s at this point I want to inform and or remind everyone who reads this. The democrats have now controlled congress for 5 years and 10 months the reason the economy went off the Clift and the banks collapsed in 2008 was under the control of the Democratic Party for 21 months it was not the Republicans it was the democrat controlled congress that did it by their actions or lack of actions. To believe otherwise means you have been misinformed and you believe the lies of the liberal progressive news media.

 

The democrats didn’t inherit this economic mess they caused it. http://wp.me/pO1Ho-9w 

 

So if you still think this was all done by Bush your eating the little balls of crap the liberal media has been feeding you for your entire life and the last 6 years. All you need to do is a search for congress January 2007 to 2012 and you will see the democrats have controlled everything for the whole time period and then blames republicans and Bush for what they did. To say well that’s just politics does not make it right and it doesn’t fix the mess we are in. If they are getting away with these lies it’s because some Americans like those voting in democrat party for the democratic party are allowing them to get away with it. I don’t get my news from fox I seek the truth always this is the real no spin zone. I go to the federal record and look at the numbers and if you really want the truth it’s in the numbers not the news media they all sound like parrots to me spinning their stories as they see the truth with 10 different versions or opinions about the same story and none of them are right.

 

Facts compared to opinion and views. The glass is half full or is it half empty? No matter what you opinion or view is; the same amount of water resides in the glass. its math and math is not an opinion or a view. This goes to the next part the historical events of the past that can give us a clear picture of the possibilities and the near term effects of economic events like taxmageddon.

 

I have seen many economist discuss this $450 billion tax increase like it’s a good thing and the value of the dollar will increase because the deficit would shrink and that’s would be a good thing under normal text-book economic conditions it would be, except for the facts they seem to forget that we would definitely go into a very deep recession or depression from a $450 billion tax increase and while we have a deficit of $16.4 trillion hanging over our heads that’s not good for bonds or the value of the dollar if we are borrowing $600 billion while the economy is shrinking at a rate of 3% and could quickly go 6% negative GDP  it is likely under these conditions no one will loan us any money and people who hold our bonds would sell them very fast causing a panic sell off or a crash in the bond markets.

 

This has happened before in 1980. I can tell you right now when the economy starts to decline and go into a recession under the new much higher tax rates that what the economist are telling you say it’s a good thing is idiotic and that’s being kind. As the whole dynamics of the entire economy changes very quickly in economic declines the stock markets and bond markets will change and go into a severe decline and bond markets will be up for a few days maybe and then be sold off to cover losses in other stock markets and commodities markets this is always a worldwide event and everything will all change dramatically as well. None of it will be good. It will all be bad news (do you have a 401-K) and even before the first dollar in higher taxes is stolen away from the rich, the middle class and working poor this will unfold and become history. When this happens and it will, the economists college degrees can all be thrown out the window or used as toilet paper because nothing works in severe declines. I have been in 3 severe economic declines or crashes as a business owner and an investor.

 

Currently what gives the dollars or the bonds the value they do have is the confidence that the government can pay the interest on the debt and that confidence level all changes if we go into a recession. Confidence is nothing more than a thought and as quick as we can change our minds or in one day that confidence could disipere and this could cause a second bond market collapse worse than the one in 1980 because the debt is 32 times larger than in 1980

 

The Bond Market Collapse of February 1980 The time is November, 1979; the place, the White House. Like in November 2012, a dark financial cloud hovers over Washington — not only fiscal troubles, but also the threat of hyperinflation.

 

President Jimmy Carter and Congress have been gridlocked for months, unable to deal with the brewing storm. Unlike November 2012, the next presidential election is a year away. But investors don’t wait for the ballots. Nor do they have to. They begin issuing their sell orders immediately, venting their wrath primarily in the U.S. bond market by dumping medium and long-term U.S. Treasury securities. Treasury bond prices collapse, while interest rates surge. (We are set up for this perfect storm once again triggered by taxmageddon)

 

The tipping point comes on February 5, 1980. That’s when Treasury bond prices fall so far that their yields surge above the 11% level the all-time peak reached during the Civil War. “Faced with a prolonged buyer’s strike,” says one bond market pro, “we decided to throw in the towel and get yields up to a level where some cash buyers might be shocked off the sidelines.” But the next day, panicky bondholders begin unloading bonds at any price … and there are still few takers even at record interest rates everyone is still selling. The selling is so intense that all except two of the largest, best-capitalized bond dealers on Wall Street Merrill Lynch and Solomon Brothers effectively abandon their market-making role.

 

Now, it’s no longer merely a case of a price collapse. It’s a market collapse in the literal sense of the word: The dealers themselves are packing up and going home! By February 19, the collapse gathers even more momentum, as Treasury bonds lose over 5% of their face value in a single trading day!

 

Investors aren’t just shouting their protests from the rooftops. They are shutting down the market for U.S. Treasury securities, making it impossible for the U.S. government to borrow the money it needs to stay alive — and to avoid defaults on maturing debts. 

 

Result: With Paul Volcker (idiot) at his side, President Carter (another idiot) acts, announcing an anti-inflation bombshell: An unprecedented package of CREDIT CONTROLS that clamps down on virtually all forms of credit. (Dodd-Frank bank regulations will have same effects) The U.S. economy is pushed over a cliff and into a tailspin. Carter’s chances for re-election are doomed. But the bond market recovers and the U.S. Treasury is able to resume borrowing. 

 

But this all happened when the total of all federal deficits was about $ 500 Billion and now its $16.4 trillion anything even ½ of that historical recount would destroy the country and the dollar. Inflation ran between 12% and 15% in that period from 1977 to 1982 and bonds sold are governments borrowing money to finance the spending of money they don’t have. Just imagine if this only in part happens in such a weak economy and with borrowed money amounts $16.4 trillion and a need for a least and additional $50 billion a month after taxmageddon. While at the same time the economy is in a steep decline with a president that’s adverse to business. (The perfect economic storm that will end America) This also really screws up all the CBO estimates of the impact of the recession caused by taxmageddon and things will get a lot worse than there projected declines. The economy is always a moving target.

 

It was massive deficits of that time period that caused this to happen and those deficits were only $50 billion to $75 billion a year and now there over $1 trillion a year. This extremely high 16% interest rate at the peak is what the market set is the sacrifice that investors demanded in order to kill the threat of hyperinflation or the extreme devaluation of a currency. It really never worked but they won’t tell you this because it makes both Carter and Volker look like the idiots they are. Inflation remained high and the higher interest rate had only one purpose atract money to finance deficit spending. The higher interest rates fueled inflation in higher cost to barrow money that doest reduce cost it increases cost thus inflation increases. Liberal progressives always get it backwards. This is what Washington ultimately delivered. That at least in part will happen with taxmageddon coming in just 7 weeks. (Merry Christmas)

 

The general notion here is that, given the root causes of our economic distemper, rampant financialization, over-leverage and over-indebtedness, a politically dominant parasitic banking sector, an aging population, over promised entitlements, a financial business model based on fraud, Federal Reserve monetizing of debt, and a dysfunctional political system, to mention only the top of the list how can the USD appreciate in real terms? It cannot! It only has one way to go and that’s down. There only needs to be a trigger to set this whole decline into motion and I believe its taxmageddon.

 

This is how investors play the markets and why the dramatic decline or a crash will become obvious in the next 45 days or less. Businesses and market players make their decisions based on future projections of business activity and profits or the lack of profits. All market investment is determined by future projections or guesses of economic activity 6 months before they accrue not afterwards. You can expect a crash or at least a major correction of a few thousand points in the next few weeks and up to the week before January 1, 2013. Just like the decline after the banks collapsed in September 2008 this decline will continue well into 2013 just like the one in 2008.

 

Either way whatever happens in Congress the democrats will not make a deal because they want the economic collapse. They want the crash and they need it because democrats want the country to end as we know it so they can abolish the constitution. Making a deal with the democrats and Obama will not happen and their actions and the long history of changing constitutional law through the Supreme Court in the last 100 years and especially the last 4 years of ignoring constitutional law and playing dictator or King at every turn should prove that to people who have been paying attention Democrats hate the constitution.

 

Liberal progressive democrats have worked hard to circumvent the constitution and make unconstitutional law legal through the courts. It’s a term called judicial activism. This entire deal making process will be like trying to negotiate with a terrorist that wants to kill you, it’s a useless endeavor. Democrats’ have a long history of behavior that never changes in the liberal progressive Democratic Party. So why would any sane reasonable person expect that to suddenly change now? Liberal, progressive, Democrats want an economic collapse.

 

The conservative media will keep doing what they always do giving the benefit of the doubt to the liberal democrats and they will hope and or wish that Obama and the democrats will find a middle ground or a compromise with republicans, but the last 4 years of their actions shows that doesn’t fit Obama’s or the democrats play book. It’s always their way or the highway anything else is just imaginings and hopeful thinking so far hope has gotten us into this horrible position. The only compromises made have gotten us to the current fiscal Clift otherwise known as taxmageddon everything else has been my way or the highway with the democrat’s control of the senate and Obama. I think the democrats set America up perfectly for total economic destruction with an expiration date January 1, 2013

 

You can’t make a deal with the devil and expect anything good to come from it. I don’t think John Bonner will make a deal with the devil and if he does there’s a price to pay either way all Americans will lose no matter what our politics are.

 

What you are about to witness few weeks and months no one alive has ever seen before. This will be way worse than the great depression or the civil war. Hell on earth is what is coming and it’s not years away it’s only a matter of weeks and months and I repeat it’s not years away. To think this destructive pattern of the democrats’ and Obama can continue and Americas economy can survive 4 more years is just wishful thinking.

 

You can Hope I am wrong as I really hope I am wrong, but I said in back in 2004 and in my book 2012 that came out in November 2009 this president Obama would be the last president of the United States and so far I was right. From 40 years of observing politics and studying political history. I understand how a liberal thinks and they don’t use logic. This lack of logic is why all their ideas and policies always fail it is a form of insanity and that’s why what I say here may not make any sense to a sane person but their is no logic to there thinking it is insanity.

 

We don’t have 4 more years under any president or any dictator. The book 2012 explains it all. I said in 2009 it would either happen in 2012 or by the middle of 2013 and now we are just weeks away. You will see this unfold in the next 6 to 7 weeks in the stock markets as I expect a 2500 point correction from the September highs and so far it 1000 points down with 1500 to go and it will get a lot worse in early 2013.

 

I really hope I am wrong and I know you do too.

 

By the way very soon after taxmageddon and I mean very soon after we fall apart, the real Armageddon between Israel and Iran will start. First it will be conventional weapons but it will escalate quickly after other Arab countries join Iran in an all out WAR and an attack on Israel. Israel is surrounded by nothing but enemies with combined armies in the millions and with no allies. Regardless of what Democrats say or Obama he will not back Israel, Obama is a Muslim he will side with the Muslims. If attacked by multiple countries at one time Israel will have only one choice and that’s nuclear weapons = Armageddon. Israel has claimed 80 nuclear weapons and that’s enough to destroy all the Arab or Muslim countries major cities. The deadline for this is March 2013 set by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Here it comes! 200 million dead in one day is very possible with 80 nuclear weapons and the real sh-t hits the fan.

Read Full Post »

The liberal media is at it again and no one ever bothers to check their story or their math. The so-called economists or economic advisors should be ashamed of their mistake because it so big. It’s hard to believe anyone could be considered an economist or an advisor and miss the number so badly.

 

I am going to show you the math to prove Obama’s so-called $60 Billion jobs bill will not create 1.9 million jobs it will only create 589,000 jobs. So the so-called economists missed the numbers by 1,311,000 jobs. In my industry that’s an inexcusable mistake. It’s obvious to me there lying for Obama and the liberal progressive Democratic Party. (Surprised?)

 

First I want to show you how they came up with the number 1.9 million from the $60 Billion spent on infrastructure and that is roads, bridges, renovations of schools or construction jobs. We take the $60 billion and divide it by the 1.9 million and it comes out to be $31,578.95 per job. That number is about right based on a $12.00 per hour and adding the cost on labor like workman’s compensation, unemployment insurance, employer’s contribution of social security and liability insurance on labor. My number based on $12.00 hour base wage came to be $31,200.00 a year. So there number is close on that point, but there 1.9 million jobs is figuring 100% of the $60 billion is all labor and that’s just plain wrong!

 

Here is the thing” I did construction bidding for more than 30 years and there’s a lot more to estimate a job then just labor and that’s the way their number works out there’s no money for materials and overhead cost or shameless, obscene  profits.

 

The very most basics of construction bidding practices are materials, overhead and labor cost, not just labor and let’s not forget those shameful obscene profits.

 

It seems they forgot about the cost of materials and what about the cost of overhead like trucks, office expenses and all the unseen expenses of running a construction business. The point is the so-called economists either don’t have a clue of what it’s like to run a business and they don’t know what they’re talking about or they just lied. Which of the two do you think it is? I think they don’t have a clue and they lied. This has been the pattern of the Democratic Party for the last 100 years and that’s never going to change it’s who they are.

 

The whole Democratic Party is based on lies they depend on their voter’s ignorance to get reelected.

 

Now I am going to show you why the so-called jobs bill will only create 589,000 jobs, not 1.9 million jobs

 

We start with $60 Billion and use the 31% labor average which is the standard for labor cost in the construction industry and just happens to be the national average for the whole economy based on numbers from the department of labor and statistics.

 

I derive my 31% labor by using the average wage, average number weekly hours multiplied by the yearly total yearly wage and divided into GDP to get the percentage of labor and that’s 31%.

 

To find the appropriate amount of labor in the $60 billion jobs bill we multiply it times the 31% labor average and it comes out the amount of labor is 18,600,000,000 then we divide that by their yearly wage $31,578 and that’s 589,007 jobs. That’s a very big difference from 1.9 million jobs and it’s a mistake of 1,310,993 jobs. Whoever made that large of a mistake should be fired.

 

The rest of the $60 billion less labor would be spent for materials, overhead and there must be a profit. This is exactly what they did in the first so-called stimulus bill passed in January of 2009 they said would create millions of jobs that never materialize and the dollar amount was about the same $60 billion for construction and infrastructure out of the $867 billion stimulus bill. This is just more of the same Bull shit.

 

I do realize this is just a political move to blame the republicans for Obama’s bad economy and the lack of jobs by not passing the jobs bill. But that will only work on the dummies that would vote for Obama anyway in 2012. One of the biggest reasons Obama won in 2008 was the very low turnout of the 55 million registered republicans, many never showed up to vote and that’s part of why McCain lost and Obama won.

 

Obama’s jobs bill is not the answer, the liberal, progressive democrats federal government spending is the problem.

 

If they use the excuse that some jobs will be created from incomes from this so-called jobs bill it will not be what they expect. Most business are not hiring because they don’t have the volume of business to hire new employees and some of their employees are part-time. If business does get better and extra manpower is needed that will be supplied by existing part-time employees until business gets really good and this jobs bill isn’t going to do it. There estimates on this will be way off as well as their other goofy estimates.

 

Also the same goes for the construction companies that would bid this work. They also have part-time employees because they don’t have enough work for a 40 hour work week now. Anyone who would get these government contracts would just use their part-time people and only add a few extra people. My whole family is in construction we do home improvement, renovation work and this is the case not a theory or a guess, it is the situation across the country.  

Another problem is the construction industry is or was 85% illegal aliens prior to the collapse of the construction industry. This makes it very difficult to recognize any large numbers of jobs for Americans. Most of the money and jobs in this bill will go to illegal aliens and 1/3 their money will be sent to South America. We have never hired one illegal alien and I guess that makes me a racist.

 

The only way to fix the economy is to rely on the part that still provides 120 million jobs and that’s the private sector corporations and small business.

 

The jobs Obama’s bill is supposed to create are like all the other jobs he has created they are temporary they will go away when the money runs out.

 

Government jobs are going away, the states governments are cutting their budgets they have run out of money and total number of government jobs are going away. There broke!

 

Government is the problem not the answer. The deficit spending from the federal government is sucking all the available money out of the banking system and a lot more from the worlds banking system. They are barrowing about $4 billion a day, about $126 billion a month and $1.5 trillion each year. As long as this continues there will be no recovery and there’s no end in sight.

 

The federal deficit is why our economy and Europe’s economy isn’t growing and adjusted for inflation they are shrinking and it’s all because the governments here and over there are sucking the banks dry. Governments are borrowing all the available money in the banking system and there is very little left for the private sector companies or the people to barrow and grow the economies. Then the politicians blame it on the banks to divert the blame from them.

 

The small cuts in the budget deficit the supper committee is trying to make of $120 billion a year are a drop in the bucket compared to the huge $1.5 trillion in deficit spending and will make very little difference.

 

Any increase in taxes to the rich just makes less money available in the private sector economy for the creation of jobs from an expansion in the private sector economy. This is the dumbest thing I ever heard next to the last dumbest thing and that was also one of the democrats and Obama’s brainstorms, the $867 Billion stimulus that didn’t stimulate anything except to increase the deficit by $867 Billion.

 

Here is the democrats and Obama’s newest plan: we take $70 billion in new taxes from the incomes of the small business and transfer that tax money to the federal government, than the government spends $60 billion to create jobs. How does that add to the economy or the GDP? It’s like taking buckets of water out of a lake and carrying it to the other side and dumping back into the same lake expecting the water level to rise? Or like standing in the bucket and trying to lift yourself up, it’s never going to happen.

 

These are the idiots someone put in charge of the country. Liberal progressive Democrats’ have proven they all have very poor math skills and serious sociological problems. You will lose a greater number of jobs in the private sector economy then the government created jobs will produce.

 

They also claimed these jobs will happen in 12 months but that will never happen. It will take at least 1 year to get started and another 18 months after that to complete most of the projects. That’s because of all the layers of bureaucracy on the federal level and then in the states. It’s impossible for them to do it in one year. Remember how shovel ready wasn’t really shovel ready?

 

The so-called economists and economic advisors are almost always wrong. When the economic reports come out why are they always surprised? If they were any good they wouldn’t be so wrong, so much. I wished I could get paid to be wrong all the time. Maybe I should run for president?

 

 

 

 

Read Full Post »

For the real state of the American economy there are only 3 items to look at GDP, Inflation and Unemployment. Looking at these 3 major reports within the government documents you can find out why there is no recovery and no jobs. (And why there never will be a recovery)

GDP – minus Inflation = Unemployment and jobs or no jobs

The GDP headline numbers are not inflation adjusted numbers. Once you match up the GDP and the inflation you quickly find out why there isn’t any job creation.

The latest report on GDP growth was 2.5% for the third quarter of 2011. The latest report on CPI inflation was 3.9%. This adds up to the inflation adjusted growth of GDP is negative 1.4% – not positive. The Producer Price Index rose 0.8 percent in September and that in one month x 12 = 9.6% base on a whole year.

This is also using the seasonally adjusted headline inflation number and not the unadjusted true inflation number. That last unadjusted inflation number up to September 2011 is 10.5% and it’s on page 3 of the inflation report (see URL below) put out by the department of labor and statistics which shows a graph where it says unadjusted inflation rate. If we consider that number 10.5% and deduct it from the growth rate of 2.5% the economy is shrinking or negative – 8.1%

BLS report dated release Tuesday, October 18, 2011 See Chart 4 on page four 12-month percent changes in the Producer Price Index for intermediate goods, not seasonally adjusted: September 2010 – September 2011

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf

Something you may find very interesting in this chart may be that inflation has doubled in the last 6 months and has been as high as 11.6% and this number is more in line with what the American people have experienced as no one believes the inflation rate is only 2% to 3% for the whole year.

This is what happens when governments flood the system with trillions of dollars in unearned paper money or digitized money and its called inflation

Here is why there are no jobs.

Barack Obama and the Liberal progressive Democratic Party make claims that 2.5 million jobs have been created since BO took office. That is just not true and there is no evidence of any job creation in the monthly reports since BO took office and the $867 Billion stimulus bill has been passed. Debbie Wassermann Schultz says 3.6 million jobs created (Which Is It?) But there’s no proof of their statements in the employment reports either. The fact is we had 142 million jobs in February 2009 and we just got back to 140 million jobs in the last report and only because of a change made in who and what they count as a job and I will explain why there has been zero job creation in the last 12 months.

In January of 2011 the department of labor and statistics started counting self-employed incorporated and unincorporated as employed. This immediately made the total number of jobs on page 4 line 4 of the January monthly report release date February 3, 2011 in the total number of jobs column jumped by 700,000 jobs from the December 2010 to the January 2011 report and this did not show up in the January headline numbers but it did show up in the headline numbers in February, March, April and May 2011 headline numbers.

In Those 4 employment reports did total nearly 700,000 just like the page 4 numbers jumped in January 2011 report. Now you know why those 4 months looked like we were coming out of recession and then the following 4 months June – September 2011 looked like crap. They are fixing the headline numbers to make things look better than they are by counting self-employed people as employees.

This report shows the change made by department of labor and statistics started adding self-employed to that jobs number in January of 2011 see January report release Feb. 3, 2011 top of page 4 

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_02042011.pdf

 The economy only grew at .4 % in the first quarter and only 1.3% in the second quarter and there telling the American people 700,000 jobs were created in the very same period! At the same time the inflation rate is several times higher than the growth rate.

In the last 4 months the total number of jobs added comes to 100,000 jobs for an average of 25,000 jobs a month. Our economy needs to be adding at least 250,000 jobs a month. If you can believe the bogus government numbers or if the economy is creating any jobs at all we are at 1/10th of what we need. Since they are now counting self-employed as employed anyone starting an eBay business and really is an unemployed person is counted as employed and only 1 in 1000 of these people ever make any profits.

(The last employment report claimed 105,000 jobs but that included 45,000 Verizon workers that came off strike so the real jobs number is 60,000 for September not the 105,000 headline number)

Another way to look at the employment situation for the period of the past 4 months and how bad it really is we needed 1 million jobs and we only got 100,000 jobs and that means we are 900,000 jobs short of the target in just the last 4 months. Any way we look at the numbers there real bad.

We have been in a jobs recession for the last 47 months. Just the number of people entering the work force at 125,000 a month is 5,875,000 million jobs needed. Every month that goes by we are falling further behind and the numbers get bigger.

This is the liberal progressive democrat’s economy as they had control of congress since January 2007 and 21 months before the banks collapsed in September of 2008.

The real unemployment problem and the true unemployment rate are done by using information in the monthly reports. I didn’t make this up it’s all in the monthly employment reports no one seems to be able to read any further then the headline statement.

There are 14 million unemployed with a 9.2% unemployment rate.

Adding 8 million that have given up looking for work and are no longer counted there are 22 million unemployed not counted because the government says they have given up looking. Just adding this brings the unemployment rate to 16%

This 8 million did not really give up looking they have just run out there 99 weeks of unemployment. We have been in a jobs recession for 47 months now or 188 weeks. If you have been paying attention since the very beginning of this self created mess we lost 8 million jobs from the outset prior to and just after the bank collapse in 2008. Do you see the numbers matching up, they are identical. Almost 4 years have passed and you can only receive unemployment for 99 weeks and that’s 1 year 10 months and 3 weeks.

Adding another 9 million part time employed to that 22 million there are 31 million total unemployed and partially employed and that’s a 23% unemployment rate almost the same as the height of the 1930s great depression said to be 25%.

This is all found in the monthly reports and no one in the media right or left seems to notice the total of the three categories of unemployed, the unemployed that have given up and the partially employed and I will repeat that total is 31 million people.

The reason for no jobs comes from the top part of this article and the economy is shrinking. The reason it’s not being reported is, it’s all politics. How bad would it look for BO and the liberal, progressive democrat party if every time they talked about jobs and reporting the real number of unemployed being 31 million people or a 23% unemployment rate. That would be real bad for BO and that dumb ass believes his own bull shit.

Using the GDP and subtracting or adjusting for inflation no matter which number we use 3.9% or the unadjusted inflation rate of 10.5% inflation in the currency explains why the economy isn’t creating any jobs. These truths must be told and the public needs to prepare, this house of cards could fall down at any moment.

As retail numbers and other economic reports come out at small increases of 2/10 % to 4/10 % if you just match them up with the monthly inflation numbers you will see they match almost perfectly and often lower than the inflation rates. We are not buying more products we are just paying a lot more for the same thing. That’s what inflation is! a loss of buying power in the paper currency.

The reason the economy grew at a faster rate in the third quarter at 2.5% is all the inflation in the dollar which is also accelerating but at a much faster pace. Look at that chart again at the unadjusted inflation of rate 10.5%. Just happens to be increasing with the so-called growth rate of the economy. For the proof Just click on the links they should open in a new page PDF File and look at table A-1 page 4 lines 4 were it says total number of jobs

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION – SEPTEMBER 2011

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

(The economic recovery bill was January 2009)

September 2011- 140,025,000 jobs

Its 33 months since BO took office and the $867 Billion stimulus plan passed January 2009 and there are 2,074,000 less total jobs in the economy now according to department of labor and statistics. We already had a second jobs stimulus of $50 Billion that didn’t work either and now BO wants to try a failed policy for a third time! That’s insanity! The bottom line is this policy has been tried dozens of times since the creation of the Federal Reserve and in Europe and it never worked one time.

If we look back to the month the stimulus bill was passed the situation is a whole lot worse.

Total number jobs January 2009 = 142,099,000 the month stimulus bill was passed

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_02062009.pdf

Total number jobs last report September 2011 = 140,025,000 jobs

Total number jobs lost since BO took office 2,074,000 that’s 2 million jobs lost since the stimulus there have been no job gains. There counting backwards on purpose using the negative as a positive to deceive the American people but that only works on democrats now. The explanation of how BLS get their crazy head line number is in the reports and it’s all plus or minus of all kinds of moving targets.

 For the proof Just click on the links you should open in a new page a PDF File from the department of labor and satistics and look at table A-1 page 4 lines 4 were it says total number of jobs

Read Full Post »

 A series of events are about to take place in America

There is a building momentum of events about to take place and unfold into history. These events will dramatically change everything in the next seven weeks. It is not one thing that will cause this change is a combination of many things. These are ongoing problems and have building one upon the other over time.

I would like to point out these current economic affairs and identify them for the people. If the people are going to prepare for this the time is now. I believe in just the next seven weeks by July 8th 2011 the true nature of the economy will show itself and there will be a dramatic shift in the economy, the government won’t be able to hide their distortions anymore. All this will build into additional events that will prove we are in the double dip recession. (I believe it started in November and December of 2010)

The only place the economy that really shows strength is in the employment reports. There is a reason for these higher numbers. In the January employment situation report that came out on February 3, 2011 stated on page 4 that as of January 2011 they would count self-employed people Incorporated and unincorporated as employees. That number added to the current employed number is about 1 million additional self-employed people or employers now counted as employed people. Now you know where the huge numbers are coming from as all the other economic indicators contradicts the possibility of 200,000 jobs a month being created.

The first quarter GDP was 1.8 % and in 2 of those months they reported job numbers around 200,000 and that’s just not possible with a 1.8% growth rate.

All of this dollar growth in spending was from higher gas, food prices and other inflation in the economy or just plain higher prices.

Problem number one; these falsely bloated employment numbers will show the true nature of the economy when they run out of self-employed people to add to the employed number. That will come out in the July 8 report 2011 and then we will know the true nature of the employment situation.

I believe these unemployment figures will be the trigger for a sudden downturn of both physical and psychological sentiment in all sectors of the economy. This is just one of many other items in our economy building one upon the other.

Problem number two: The budget deficit that has been one of the primary causes of the current devaluation of the dollar and this is a large part of what has caused the higher gasoline prices and this will get worse in the next three months.

The debt ceiling is currently being negotiated with budget cuts in Congress.

 There will be no meaningful budget cuts that will truly reduce the deficit short-term or long-term.

 Long-term budget cuts mean zero if we don’t cut short-term spending because we have to make it to the long-term for those long-term cuts to make any difference. Anyone talking about or projecting that in 5 or 10 years will be broke is ignoring the fact that we went broke a long time ago.

The Democrats still control the Senate and the presidency. We have already seen their resistance to meaningful cuts and nothing good will come from the negotiations in the next two months. The debt ceiling will be raised but as the world gets a look at the so-called cuts in spending for the lack of meaningful budget cuts all confidence in our ability to fix the problem will go away. When confidence goes away so will the value of the debt bonds and the value of the dollar.

Problem number three. $4.00 dollar a gallon gasoline takes $440 billion out of economy when compared to $2.50 a gallon price of just 8 months ago. No one has reported this in total dollar amounts. Only vague statements that it hurts the economy, well how bad does it hurt? At the $2.50 a gallon crude oil refined is about 4.8% of the economy. At four dollars a gallon for gasoline its 7.8% of the economy this is a 3% shift in spending from all other sectors of the economy.

Problem number four; healthcare insurance from new regulations of the Democrats and Obama’s health care legislation has been costing the American people a minimum of $250 billion more a year in additional premiums this started in the last quarter of 2010. This has not been reported in total dollar amounts either, just vague statements of higher premiums and no total dollar amount figured an attached and subtracted from GDP. I calculated this is about 1.7% of gross domestic product on a yearly basis. This is equivalent of an additional dollar per gallon of gasoline being imposed on the American people. It has the same effect on the economy as gasoline neither one adds anything to the quality of life nor to our assets the money just disappears into thin air.

Adding up these two problems alone its negative 4.7% of GDP and much greater than the 3.5% GDP growth expected in the second quarter and all of 2011 and much more than the 1.8% GDP reported in the first quarter of 2011. These gross domestic product numbers are not inflation-adjusted when reported to public. If you inflation-adjusted the 4.7% negative to the economy for gasoline and healthcare costs we have a 2.9% negative inflation-adjusted gross domestic product and this makes it impossible for the economy to be creating 200,000 jobs a month which is explained by the government adding the self-employed business owners to the number of employed. The employment numbers are in fact phony numbers and the people who are reading or listening to this now know why.

 Adding it all up and attaching dates to it.

 Problem number one: unemployment reports are bogus and the true nature of the employment situation will show its true nature in the report of July 8 at 2011.

 Problem number two: the budget deficit and the debt ceiling will not be resolved. This problem will come up in July with no specific date but we do have a default date of August 2, 2011. They will raise the debt ceiling before this August 2, 2011 date.

  Problem number three: The second quarter GDP from March to June of 2011 comes out on July 28, 2011 this number will either be negative or very low number. Remember earlier we figured due to higher gasoline prices and the cost of health care we have a -4.7% shift in spending in just those two sectors and this does not count higher food prices or other prices that have gone up because the higher gasoline prices.

 Problem number four: Even higher gas prices than were paying right now. This will be caused from a further devaluation of the dollar and the inability of Congress to bring deficit spending under control. The full results of this will probably be felt in August and September of 2011.

 Problem number five; even higher health insurance premiums that will continue to increase as time goes on. All this comes from the Democrats and president Obama’s healthcare insurance as different additional requirements kick in overtime forcing up insurance premiums higher to the public.

This is all ongoing right now and building one upon the other as each week passes. Working against the American economy and the American people this is all being done by the Democratic Party who still controls two of three parts of the legislative government. If I was a person that wanted to destroy the United States from within, I would do exactly what the Democrats have done in their four years of controlling Congress from January 2007 to 2011 and they continue their intentional destruction of the economy and the country by refusing to cut any Government deficit spending.

Government reports are always way behind reality of things; it takes two business cycles of 60 days each or 120 days for the true nature of the economy to show up in government reports. Even when the government doctors up the numbers sooner or later the true state of the economy shows up.

Everything I have looked at tells me that from after the July 4 holiday we will have a dramatic change in all things in the economy. It is all attached to our $1.5 trillion yearly deficit and the apparent lack of ability to do anything about future deficits and it’s all because of our politics. This will cause a change in the value of the dollar like we fell off a Clift. This will lead to dramatically higher inflation or a severe devaluation of our currency which will cause all prices to dramatically increase not just the cost of gasoline. This will come mostly in the fourth quarter October 2011 to December 2011 and get much worse in 2012.

 Everything points to July and after the July  4th holiday. This is when it all comes together I believe the crap hits the fan and all this will unfold in just seven weeks.

 Next week house of representative are supposed to vote on raising debt ceiling the plan is for it not to pass. May 30th to June 3 2011

 Unemployment report comes out next Friday June 3, 2011. I am neutral on this one as I expect it will still be positive due to adding the self-employed.

 Quantitative easing stops June 30th

 Without QE 3 who will buy the bonds? If you total all the countries in the worlds who have purchased our debt bonds with their printed up phony money it doesn’t even come close to the $130 billion a month the Federal Reserve has been selling to pay for our deficits. That is what Quantitative easing  really is for, its money given to the banks in the guise of adding liquidity to the banking system and they banks turn the digits into the purchase of the debt bonds. China’s average bond purchases since the bank collapse in September 2008 has only been $10 billion a month and all other countries combined is just a little more than that, the rest comes from Quantitative easing or more than $100 billion a month is more or less just money made up out of thin air. So what happens when Quantitative easing ends in June? QE 3 or more money made up out of thin air to finance the federal budget deficits further destroying the value of the dollar.

 Israel – August 22 2011 Iran’s nuclear reactor comes on-line. Will Israel bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities? What happens if they do? Higher gasoline prices!

 July 8 the unemployment report will be bad. What will the markets do? This will show we are going into double dip recession.

  There’s certainly a lot going on right now!

Read Full Post »

Fromt cover of 2012 size 128 x 192 small

2012 cover

The talking heads make generalizations about the negative effects of higher priced gasoline and crude oil costs but they never seem to tell you what those effects are in numbers. What I will attempt to do here is show the math and how that translates into a specific number of jobs that are lost for the resent $.60 increase and every dollar increase in the cost of gasoline or crude oil. And the reason for this is what will come in the next few months as the current higher price of crude oil will divert about $13.9 Billion each month is diverted away from other industries. There is an equation to figure the number of jobs lost from higher crude oil prices. 31% of all dollars spent in the gross domestic product of the country is labor.

There is only so much money in the economic system at a given time. Just like a wage earner only gets a certain amount of money in his check every week and as prices go up on gas he has less money to spend on other items. When prices move rapidly upwards wages do not have a time to adjust to this increased prices. So any additional monies spent on higher priced gasoline as a direct and immediate effect on the overall economy. There are approximately 260,000,000 automobiles in America almost every one of them needs gasoline or diesel fuel every week. So even if people aren’t complaining about $12 a week increase it’s costing them for the gasoline it has to be multiplied by the total number of automobiles in the country and that number is huge as it numbers in the many billions of dollars every month that disappears and goes up in little puffs of smoke.

I know most Americans only think about gasoline prices in terms of how it costs them every week they complain about the $10 or $20 extra they’re spending. No one ever thinks about the many billions of gallons of gas we use every week and that translates into billions of dollars it costs the entire economy. No one ever seems to think of where the money goes or that it actually goes nowhere as it is used and it goes up in smoke. Most of the money goes overseas or to Canada or Mexico and even Venezuela. The government and the politicians always blame it on the greed of the big oil companies but are in fact the politicians that created the situation and conveniently blame it on the big oil companies. This obviously does work as everybody I’ve ever talked to blame on the gas station owner or the big oil companies so it works to give cover to the politicians that created the mess.

What I will use is the total number of gallons of crude oil used in the country which are refined into gasoline diesel fuel and many other products that we use. But to make it clear for the average citizen to understand I will use the price at the gas pump because that is what we see every week. Calculating it this way also will closely cover other uses for crude oil products like plastics fertilizer and anything else that comes from crude oil as it has many uses in manufacturing. Our entire economy has been built and structured around the automobile and the use of petroleum products. The higher prices of crude oil shows up in nearly everything we purchase. Here comes the math so you should get your bottle aspirin out in case it gives you a headache.

Now let’s take that number and figure out the actual job losses based on 31% of that money spent would be labor or jobs and this can be calculated from the hourly work week and wage averages at Department of Labor statistics. All money spent in the economy or the gross domestic product works out to be 31% is a labor calculation based on information provided at the Department of labor and statistics and calculated into estimated current $14.7 trillion economy.

We use 550 million barrels crude oil each month and 6.5 billion barrels a year. Each barrel of crude contains 42 gallons. The total gallons of crude oil used are 23,100,000,000 each month. (23.1 billion) If we take that and multiply it times a most recent increase of $.60 per gallon it totals $13.9 billion a month that just disappears. Gasoline price increases are Just like taking a $13.9 billion a month putting it in a pile and setting it on fire, it just disappears. We’re not buying additional product, we are paying more money for the same amount of product. This has the same effect as the gross domestic product shrinking by the same dollar amount on a yearly basis that is one $167 billion. This is just for a $.60 per gallon increase in price over the last 120 days.

If you take $13.9 billion a month at 31% the total labor amount lost is $4.3 billion. If you take the average national wage of $50,000 per year per employee you get a total job losses number of 86,000 jobs lost each month and this is a cumulative month over month. To get a yearly total at 86,000 lost jobs per month we have to multiply times 12 months to get the yearly total of lost jobs and that number is 1,032,000 jobs lost yearly. This is with just a $.60 per gallon increase over what I believe the price of $2.50 a gallon is the average threshold of affordability. The price has steadily increased over last four months. It takes 3 to 4 months for any changes in the economy actually show up in government employment reports. Next we will look at what happens if the price goes even higher. Doing this calculation you will see the extreme negative effect of higher priced gasoline or crude oil has on the economy and the job losses caused from the increase.

They are calling for the price of gas to increase by another dollar per gallon up to the old highs of $4.00 per gallon by July of 2011. I have done the math on that and it will absolutely force us into another recession and we really are not out of the one we are in yet. Let’s do a calculation based on the price of gas going from the August price of $2.50 and an increasing to $4.00 a gallon by July of 2011. The higher price of gasoline is not an investment it is something that we burn and it disappears. Gasoline or diesel is not a product that we can place in our house and admire. Once we’re done with it we cannot resell it as it no longer exists and is gone forever and so is the money we spend on it.

The total gallons of crude oil used each month are 23,100,000,000. (23.1 billion) if we take that and multiply it times a $1.50 per gallon increase over the $2.50 threshold of affordability we get the total dollar amount $34.65 billion spent monthly from the increased cost of crude oil. Then we calculate the labor of 31% of that number and we get $10.74 billion in lost wages every month let’s figure the lost jobs based on the $50,000 per year average salary in America. The total monthly lost in jobs from this increase of $1.50 a gallon is 214,800 jobs a month. To get the yearly we multiply that time’s 12 and we get 2,568,000 job losses on a yearly basis. This is what high-priced oil will do to the economy and the job market. This also coincides with the job losses back in 2008 when gasoline did go above $4.00 a gallon and stayed there for many months until the bank collapsed. The monthly job loss range in 2008 was between 250,000 to 480,000 jobs lost each month up until the banks collapsed in September 2008. Only then did the price come down because the money wasn’t there to buy the futures contracts in the commodities market to keep the prices high.

We have politicians like Al Gore who said we need $8.00 gallon gasoline so that bio fuels and other alternative fuels can compete with the cost of gasoline. We have liberal and progressive talking heads who say we should tax gasoline five dollars a gallon which of course would push it up to eight dollars a gallon that liberals and progressives want. We have had actions or regulations from the Democratic Party for over 30 years which have not allowed our oil companies in the US to drill for oil on any US lands where we know there is oil, like Alaska which is said to have more oil than Saudi Arabia. Our American owned oil companies are only allowed to explore for oil where we know there is none because the lands have already been explored. In offshore drilling oil companies are only allowed to drill in international waters hundred miles off the coast in 5000 to 7000 feet of water or over a mile deep which is very expensive. They do this when we already know that almost all the oil in the Gulf of Mexico lies between 15 and 50 miles of shoreline and in shallow water where it is very easy and cheap to get but liberal progressive Democrats will not allow our oil companies to drill there.

The oil industry is one of the heaviest regulated industries next to healthcare. We have gone from being 30% dependent upon imported crude oil to 72% reliant on imported crude oil since the creation of the Department of Energy.

Nothing the liberal progressive Democratic Party has done for more than 30 years makes any sense other than to do things that would potentially push the price of crude oil sky-high. It is by the actions of legislation and the regulation and the creation of the Department of Energy that has destroyed our oil industry. It has gone way past the point of being a national security issue. If something were to happen in the Middle East like a war between Israel and Iran that would cut off a part of the world oil supply. We get very little of our oil from the Middle East only about 10% but it’s not about how much oil we get from the Middle East it’s about the world oil market prices based on commodities exchanges daily trading. It would force the futures market price up dramatically and we could see $8.00 a gallon gasoline in just a few weeks. Looking at the estimate of just four dollars a gallon and job losses from a $1.50 a gallon price increase let’s take a look at what a $5.50 a gallon increase over the $2.50 a gallon price would do as the money disappears from the economy.

Let’s do a calculation based on a $5.50 per gallon price increase the numbers above comes out to be around 784,738 jobs per month lost or 9,416,856 a year and of course that would collapse the economy. I think that’s really what liberal progressive Democrats want to do because that’s what they say they want and that’s the way the math works out, if they get what they want. So destroying the economy is what they want to do. If they can’t do the math they shouldn’t be in the office that they hold because that means they’re not smart enough to see the consequences of their actions and they do not belong in Congress no matter who their constituents are.

The strategic oil reserve that the US government holds would last about 40 days if we have to supply all our own petroleum from it. Most people don’t realize how many billions of gallons of gasoline will use every week. The strategic oil reserve holds 727 million barrels are stored in four hollowed-out salt domes along the coastline of the Gulf of Mexico. At 550 million barrels a month or at 23,000,000,000 gallons of crude consumption we would use that entire strategic oil reserve every 40 days. This adds up to some 62 days’ worth of imports, we cannot rely on this in any long-term disruptions as wars can go on for years. Even though we may only need small amounts of the strategic oil reserve to supplement a shortage, the price is more about the commodities market price than it is how much crude oil we have to take from that reserve. There is another factor in that is the strategic oil reserve is in the form of unrefined crude oil and we only get 19 gallons of gasoline from every 42 gallons of crude oil or per barrel and that greatly reduces the number of days we will be able to fuel the fleet of 260 million cars.

The liberals and progressives or the Democratic Party and the talking heads run their mouths without ever doing the math and figuring out what they say will do to the economy. You ever notice when they talk about oil or coal how angry they get, they act emotionally disturbed. They have no real answers only complaints. Not one of them have ever figured out how devastating each additional dollar a gallon gasoline in price would affect the economy, not even that so-called genius Al Gore who only seems to be able to figure out the tonnage of carbon we dump into the atmosphere But not the cost of eight dollars gallon gasoline to the American people and the damage that does to the economy.

What will work is Slim Pickens plan to change the country over to natural gas. This idea is brilliant and the numbers work out in a way that would save the American economy about $378 billion per year in fuel costs when compared to $3.00 gasoline. Going by the price of three dollars a gallon for gasoline and translating that into natural gas gives you a price comparison of $1.50 per gallon to get the same mileage as a gallon of gasoline would give you.  Now this Slim Pickens number is based on $10 per CFM of natural gas. Here’s the beautiful thing about it, the current cost of the CFM of natural gas is in the $4 range not $10. So we are talking something like about $.60 per gallon. This would save the economy about $700 billion a year. This would create huge surplus amounts of money in the American people’s pockets that could be spent to increase the standard living. You would see an economic boom like we’ve never seen before. The balance of trade would come into line because 72% of all that crude oil money goes out of the country every month. The trade imbalance we have with other countries is more than 50% because of imports of crude oil. Mr. Slim Pickens is a great American, a real patriot who cares about the country and has done what he can to help preserve it. He can see that our dependency on oil is destroying us and he believes it is a national security issue on top of the peak oil theory that the world is running out of oil. Since our economy is 100% dependent upon crude oil we have to change to something we can supply in country at a reasonable price and that is natural gas.

In contrast with the Democrats plans like Al Gore, Nancy Pelosi and all the other famous liberals or progressives plan proposes the eight dollars a gallon gasoline this reduces the American standard living dramatically to a banana republic. The problem with a banana republic is the currency and economy collapses completely way before we ever get to the banana republic economy. We have so much natural gas in our country we could run 100% of our automobile fleet off natural gas in our supply would last for at least 50 years and that puts us into the year 2061. If we were to change to natural gas that industry alone is estimated to create 2.5 million jobs directly and many millions more from the high paying jobs created in the oil and gas industry. We would be in fact be taking jobs that are now in foreign countries and bringing them back into the United States by the millions. By the year 2061 our technology will have advanced enough to go to something that uses no fuels of any kind. We would probably have a colony on Mars by 2061 if we would use Slim Pickens plan we would have all kinds of extra money for all kinds of new technology

The current alternative energy, battery power or hydrogen is insufficient for our current economy and far too expensive. An example would be a hydrogen powered car I checked it out, is $900,000 how many Americans can afford that? The cost of the new Chevy volt is $40,000 and you can still buy a cheap new car for $16,000 so how does that help America? The answer is it doesn’t and it does quite the opposite it pushes up the cost of an automobile not down. The cost of manufacturing bio fuels when compared to gasoline is $6.50 a gallon. Americans incomes have not gone up in the last 10 years when adjusted for inflation incomes are in fact negative. But at the same time the Democrats want to double and triple the cost of transportation to the American people. Where is there any logic or common sense when it comes to the thinking process of a liberal progressive Democrat? They live in a dreamland or fantasy land, you take your pick they both fit. My thinking process deals with numbers and facts not fantasies.

Slim Pickens started to talk to Congressman and the president Barack Obama way back at the beginning of 2008 and even as far back as early 2007. To show you how interested the Liberal progressives Democrats really are about global warming or alternative energy, not one thing has been done and it’s been four years now. Not even one little thing or step towards using natural gas has been achieved.

Here’s an explanation to why and it’s just common sense. It takes away their whipping boy the big oil companies. it also takes away their big worldwide wealth redistribution program of tax and crap. So that should prove by use of common sense and their lack of interest in changing to natural gas this proves to me they have other motives and those motives are really bad for the American people. Natural gas has almost zero carbon emissions you cannot charge a carbon tax on fuel that has no carbon pollution and you would think the nature Nazi’s would like that but it’s not really about air pollution or carbon in the atmosphere, it’s is an excuse for furthering wealth redistribution that is built into their crap and tax plan, wealth redistribution is what Liberal, progressive Democrats are famous for.

As I have watched the liberal progressive Democrats try as hard they can to destroy the United States from within for about 34 years now. Here is the only thing that makes any sense. If I wanted to devise a plan to destroy the United States from within I would do exactly what the liberal progressive Democrats have done. Since I’ve been watching them for the last 34 years this is what I have observed as the results of their actions. Could it be that they are so stupid that they don’t see what they’re doing? Every single program and all of their actions that Democrats have taken since I’ve been an adult have had the opposite effect of what they tell the American people they are supposed to do. Like the Department of Energy for example created to reduce our dependency on foreign oil from 30% in 1978 when it was created but the results have been were now 72% dependent on foreign oil in 2010. And it’s killing our economy and our country.

All these numbers are rounded off but are very close to actual crude oil consumption and the prices are only a few pennies off. The number of job losses is only to show trends and the direction of economic activity based on simple math and how the economics of our country work. The information is either from the Department of Labor statistics or it comes from the Congressional Budget Office gross domestic product report. These numbers are not meant to be exact to the penny they are rounded off in dollars and depending on where you look there not going to be exact anyway. These numbers change all the time but only by small amounts. So the outcome one year from now will be very close to the estimates we made if gasoline does go to four dollars a gallon.

 2012 What's really going to happen in 2012

Read Full Post »

Fromt cover of 2012 size 128 x 192 small

2012 cover

What’s really going to happen in 2012 is a question that is asked about 1 million times a day worldwide on the Internet search engines. Many Webster’s have scurried to cash in on the near hysteria about 2012. There are hundreds of theories based on hundreds of theories with no facts to back any of their claims of disaster. At last count there were over 600,000 different websites based on the 2012 and end of the World theories. I can tell you right now it won’t be the end of the world. Although what I have to say will sure make it seem like the end of the world. I have researched many of these other 2012 websites of prophecies. I have researched the science and the history of man the geological history of the planet and there is zero evidence of any of the claims they make. They are all just making baseless claims to scare people and make money.

What I know and understand better than anyone is economics. 21 years ago I forecasted the scenario exactly like we now have in our politics and our economy. My focus has always been mainly on the US economy because it is the largest economy in the world. That 1990 forecast was that due to our politics and out of control deficit spending would eventually lead to a collapse banking system and a collapsed currency. I forecasted that we would have trillion-dollar deficits and it would lead to the destruction of our currency and our country and I wrote a book about it in 1990. I have recently written a new book to update the more current events and what will happen in the next few years up to 2013 and it’s all based on economics which has nothing to do with anyone’s prophecies just economic forecasting. This new book is called 2012 what’s really going to happen in 2012.

To be honest I’m trying to cash in on the 2012 hysteria just like everyone else by selling my book. Not for the same reasons as the others who have written about the end of the Mayan calendar in 2012 and then claiming it means some kind of end of the world scenario which it does not. The Mayans said little to nothing about any great disaster that comes on December 21, 2012. They’re in fact are no disaster Mayan prophecies only the end of the calendar and the start of a new one and that’s it. My purpose is to inform the public about the factual evidence. What I see coming in the form of economic forecasting for the American economy and the world economy. This happens in just two short years and needs to be told. It just so happens that my calculations and the amount of time it takes for this financial fiasco to completely unfold just happens to come around the year 2012 and could possibly happen in 2013 at the latest.

All the proof is within the government reports on the economy that comes out each month. Within these government reports you can find the evidence of everything that I say in the book 2012 or on this page or any other page that I write. The government just hopes you don’t find out or figure out what all these numbers really mean and who is responsible for this mess. I have a feeling that they’re not even smart enough to see it and that’s exactly what Alan Greenspan said about the bank collapsed in 2008. I knew what was going to happen to the banks and why in 2004, to me it was just simple mathematics. This really makes me wonder about the intelligence level of 800 economists’ that work at the Federal Reserve building in Washington DC and none of them saw it coming. I know a few people who work at the federal reserve and I know why they didn’t see it coming. I tried to warn people but nobody listened, they thought I was crazy and now we have exactly what I predicted in 1990 and in 2004, a collapse banking system and $60 trillion that just disappeared.

Now I will give an explanation of what I predict will happen in 2011 and lead up to the total collapse of the US economy in 2012.

This explanation will include the politics that created the mess and who the real culprits are that will eventually lead to the destruction of our country. To explain it without pointing out the people who did it would leave unanswered questions and cause people to blame innocent parties and that would be wrong.

Most people know about the more than a trillion-dollar per year deficit spending of the federal government. For those who do not know for the years 2008 two 2011 will have accumulated $6.1 trillion in additional deficit spending in just that four-year period. It took from the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913 and up to the year 2007 for the total federal deficit spending to get the $9 trillion amount. That’s 94 years from the creation of the Federal Reserve. But it only took four years to add an additional $6.6 trillion to the public debt. With the passing of the bill that keeps federal income taxes to the current levels this will add an additional $450 billion to the deficit for the fiscal year 2011 which ends in September of this year. This will put the total public debt up to $15.6 trillion in this short period of just four short years. This was all done by the liberal progressive Democrats that controlled Congress from January 2007 to January 2011.

Presidents can’t spend one dime without Congress first approving the spending. The last budget that the Republican Party was responsible for had a $161 billion deficit and that was voted on by April 15, 2006 for the fiscal year 2007 that started October 1, 2006 and ended on September 31 2007. You can see the big difference after the democrats took control of congress and it cannot be blamed on the bank collapsed in 2008 because liberal progressive Democrats started their runaway spending by April 15, 2007 on their first budget which started in October 2007 and ran to September of 2008 and including off  budget deficits it was $900 billion the first year they took over Congress. Here is a chart to show all this out-of-control spending on this page.

https://jamesgarrett42.wordpress.com/2011/01/18/will-america-survive/

This page called Will America survive, also explains in a lot more detail the dates these budgets are made and how politics plays out. All this deficit spending money has to be borrowed under normal economic conditions. The real problem is there’s nobody with any real profits to buy the U.S. Treasury bonds at the average rate of $125 billion every month. Remember that in 2008 all banks went broke with the credit default swaps going worthless. It was said to cost the World Bank’s an estimated $60 trillion. So the question is where is all this money is coming from since all banks went broke or bankrupt in September of 2008?

All the economic growth worldwide is currently from governments printing of money trying to stimulate their economies. The answer to the question is that governments all over the world are just making money up out of thin air. Countries are buying huge amounts of debt bonds from the US with their printed up money. So what we have is their buying our worthless dollars with their worthless dollars. There’s no way this can continue without somewhere along the line the general public finding out what’s really going on and a severe devaluation of all paper currencies. Once investors realize what these governments are actually doing the confidence in these currencies will be lost and smart people will try to get their money out of these markets and the banks, then transferring their paper in some kind of a hard currency like gold or silver.

Here’s the problem; if everybody tries to sell all at once and creates another panic selloff much like we had after the 2008 bank collapse. If Stocks sold off very quickly and our markets dropped by as much as 1000 points a day like in 2008 and into early 2009. A panic of some kind is what I believe will trigger this next panic selloff in the bond markets and the trigger could be anyone of the major markets collapsing and that panic selloff going into the bond markets. It could be a major stock market correction or it could be the bond market itself in a panic selloff. But what I really think the trigger will be is a municipal bond market collapse here in the United States that will ripple into all markets here in the United States and around the world.

The most likely trigger setting all this on into motion will be the American municipal bond market. There are $2.8 trillion in city and state municipal bonds. These are bonds that were sold by the state or the city’s to build infrastructure like roads and bridges. This is additional money that is considered public debt is like U.S. Treasury’s but issued by the states and it should not be confused with the federal deficit it is additional to the federal deficit. A lot of these municipal bombs are held by union pension funds. There are currently many cities that have already default on these bonds and there are many more much larger cities that are threatening to file for bankruptcy wiping out these bonds entirely. (New York City and Los Angeles) We also have states right now like California and New York that are going to try to change the state laws to where they can also file bankruptcy because they can no longer afford to pay the interest on their municipal bond debt. Just one large union pension fund pulling a couple of billion dollars out of one particular municipal bond fund could set the whole thing in motion and create a panic. I saw something exactly like this happen to a bank back in 1985 and it caused a run on the bank and in three days it was closed. It was $1 billion bank and everybody lost their money.

The true status of the economy can be seen in tax collections by the states. Every quarter the states are reporting lower and lower tax collections on both employee’s wages and taxes on corporate Profits. So how can the economy be growing like all economists and talking heads are claiming on the boob tube, if every 90 days the states are collecting less in tax money? This evidence shows that American people are once again being lied to. All the evidence you need is on the Internet and all around you, all you need to do is look. The states and the federal government collect taxes on a percentage basis and if incomes are down and corporate profits are down; the dollar amounts in taxes collected also go down. This is the current situation in most states in America.

This collapse in the municipal bond market could be followed very closely by a collapse of the U.S. Treasury bond market which would trigger a huge selloff worldwide of all government bonds. The only thing that backs up these bonds is faith that they have worth or value. Faith is a thought and people can change their mind in a matter of seconds. A lose of faith is what causes panics and when people think they’re losing all their money they really panic. Here’s the problem: this is only the beginning. When this crash of the municipal bond market does take place it will domino into every major market in the country.

The bond market is tied directly into the banking system. Most banks keep their reserve funds invested in U.S. Treasury bonds and municipal bonds. Not only would the banks lose face value on the bonds they held if they didn’t sell them in the panic. It would put them under the legal reserve requirements required by the federal government and make many of the banks insolvent once again just like in 2008. This gives us a repeat of the 2008 bank collapse which triggers many other markets to collapse as well. This is where our real problems start.

Once this happens whole world will know that we have just been printing of money out of thin air to pay our interest on all are borrowing of money. Here’s a list of effects of a bond market collapse and it may not be in order but all these markets will be negatively affected at the same time as the bond market collapse. It will just take a longer for each affected market to show up publicly, depending upon which one it is. For example the real estate market would take two or three months to show up in any economic numbers even though the effects would be immediate.

When the bond market collapses the interest rates will skyrocket on that day and in the weeks to follow. The more people would continue to try to sell in the days that would follow a market crash higher the interest rate will go and the lower the face value would go. Under normal conditions the governments by intervening and buying their own debt bonds in the markets can keep interest rates low just like the record low-interest rates we have right now and the last two years. But in panics the government loses control and interest rates go to very high undesirable levels.

It’s at this point the cat is out of the bag and if the government wants to try to regain control to bring down interest rates as they were before the panic they have to come up with hundreds of billions and even trillions of dollars of more money made up out of thin air, digitized or printed up phony money. This money printed up out of thin air adds to the deficit and further exaggerates the problem. This is the exact scenario that can cause the hyperinflation of a currency.

If they try this, it takes a devaluing currency from the panic selloff of the bonds and devalues it even more. This is not really an option but it’s what governments normally do to try to keep the economy going as long as they can for the purpose of buying time and just praying by some miracle that the problem will go away on its own. We have survived these type panics in the past but we have never had the huge federal budget deficits as we have now. We have never been in a position that looks anything like what we have now. However we have a lot of history of countries and currencies collapsing. Looking at this history we are doing the exact same things to collapse our currency and that will destroy a country.

These higher interest rates on the bonds will directly affect the interest rate on a home mortgage loans. For Every percentage point in higher interest rates on bonds, the mortgage lenders will increase their interest rate at about the same amount. If the bond interest rate increases 3% then mortgage loans would go up from their current 5% to 8%. This leads to a second collapse in real estate market just like we had after the 2008 bank collapse. The value of real estate has dropped 30% or more since 2008. Only this collapse will be worse than the one you’re still in now and the reasons are as follows. Under the current economic conditions we could see an additional 30% drop in real estate values within months of this scenario and not over a three-year period. This has a secondary effect of causing all the collateral that the bank holds in real estate being worth less money than the dollar amount of the mortgage on the house. This makes all the banks in fact insolvent with loans outstanding much greater than the collateral that backs them up.

The higher interest that would be demanded by the holders of U.S. Treasury bonds would dramatically increase the interest that the federal government would have to pay on all its $15.6 trillion worth of debt by the end of 2011. The current interest paid on the US debt for 2011 is estimated to be $250 billion at about 3.3% interest. If this interest rate doubles so does that $250 billion and this would have to be added to the estimated deficit for 2011 of $1.5 trillion bringing the total to $1.75 trillion and that is only the on budget deficit and does not include off budget spending and adding the off budget deficit would put us in excess of a $2 trillion deficit for 2011. This will probably trigger another panic selloff as soon as these numbers are realized by the public and investors. What comes after the year 2011 is the year 2012.

The stock market will no doubt have a major correction if the bond market collapses. There’ll be trillions of dollars lost in the stock market and many trillions more in the bond markets face value of U.S. Treasury’s. These losses will be magnified in that U.S. Treasury’s are often borrowed against as collateral in the stock market by the big players like mutual funds and the like. As the face value the bonds dropped radically combined with large losses in the stock markets. There will be margin calls for cash to keep the portfolios solvent. When these things happen they feed on themselves because these portfolios are invested in stocks and bonds have to be sold to cover the losses from the leveraging. This feeds the panic and drives prices down and even more money is lost. This usually doesn’t stop until the markets are closed at the end of the day or they just stop all trading to halt the panic.

I have seen this happened two times before in the last 30 years. Back in the 1987 stock market crash and again at the September 2008 bank collapse. I was directly involved in one of these knowing it would happen before it happened to try to make money from the crashes. But in either case I lost money even know I was right about the crashes I still lost money, because you get caught up in the market and can’t get out. Because your positions are in the money they will not cash them in because someone has to be on the other end of the deal or trade and most people don’t understand that. The brokers never explain that to you because they make money off of buying and selling or the commission they received to make the trade.

There was a Treasury bond collapse around 1980 when Jimmy Carter was president. I was following politics and the economy very closely but I was not directly involved in the bond market or the stock market at that time. I can’t tell you much about that T-bill crash. I was too busy running my own business and watching its demise right along with the rest of the economy. The losses in that collapse of the bond market was said to be $2 trillion and that was 30 years ago. The bond market is many times larger now than it was in 1980.

The general public thinks the stock market is like a lottery with a pool of money just sitting there waiting to pay off your winnings, but it’s not. There are not billions of dollars sitting there to cash in your positions. But whether an investor is short or long on the market there has to be someone to take the other end of each position and if there’s not, you’re not going to get your money out. Even If you outright own the stock and want to sell it there has to be a buyer or else you’re stuck with it. You can lose it all if you’re highly leveraged or buying on a margin. I learned that the hard way and I didn’t lose all my money but it was enough to teach me not to be involved when these things happen. You may get lucky and be able to get out of market with a profit, but you can also lose more than half the money you had in the market as wildly fluctuating prices force your position from a profit to a loss. So my recommendation is stay away from all paper trades in any of these markets. If you do buy gold or silver don’t buy certificates or allow anyone to hold it for you and above all do not play the commodities market you’re almost guaranteed to lose your money there. Take delivery of the physical precious metal and keep it close to home.

Now comes inflation and hyperinflation or on more personal level that affects you and every citizen every time they go to buy food or gasoline you will see price increases weekly that will make your head spin. Every week when you go to buy food or gas you could see the price of gasoline increased by $.50 to one dollar a week. You could see food prices go up by 10% a week. Do I have to tell you how quickly this will destroy what’s left of the economy? It is at this point that we only have a few months left until total collapse af the economy. The average citizen can only afford inflation on these items in small amounts each year but not every week. The higher price of gasoline affects everything we buy as everything gets shipped to a store by truck. There is also petroleum in almost every product we buy. The farmers use a waste product from petroleum for fertilizer and this is one aspect of what pushes groceries up when petroleum prices increase.

As the cost of food and gas goes up dramatically other sectors of the economy will shrink for every dollar we spend on these two weekly expenses. Currently with crude oil at around $90 a barrel, gasoline at three dollars a gallon and food prices being what they are. We spend about 9% of the total economic output a year on these two commodities. (GDP) One way to do simple math and keep it easy to understand is that if these prices double then the additional 9% of the money we spend on food and gasoline will be diverted from other sectors of the economy. This will have the exact same effect on other sectors of the economy shrinking by 9% from their current levels when the money is diverted to the higher prices of food and gas.

The gross domestic product may increase just slightly to 3% or more, all of that growth will be from money diverted from other sectors of our economy. So while the government is telling us the economy is growing because they believe their own phony baloney headline numbers. The economy will actually be losing jobs at the rate of several hundred thousand each month from all the money being diverted to higher food and gasoline prices.

As our dollar devalues against all major currencies around the world they will demand more money on whatever they are selling us. We import about 70% of the products that are on the shelves of all stores in the United States. So what that means is almost everything we buy prices will increase dramatically. There is only so much money in the economy at a given time. The Federal Reserve is not going to rain trillions of dollars into our households like they did with the banking system. So what will happen is an any and all industry will be very negatively affected by all this diverted money being spent on higher food and gasoline prices. Like the services sector for example which makes up 80% of the economy will shrink and millions of jobs will be lost. So now we get the higher unemployment that comes along with higher food and gas prices as this money is diverted from all the other sectors of the economy.

This has the effect because of unemployment compensation of pushing deficits of both the states and the federal government even higher. Federal budgets and state budgets will collect even less in taxes month over month than they anticipate. This is very much like the scenario is playing out right now but the one I’m talking about will be much worse and a lot faster than our current slow decline. This would translate into either higher taxes or huge layoffs for state workers making things much worse than the current economic conditions.

This leads to the second big collapse of the world banking system. There will be millions more homes mortgages going into default on top of the 300,000 per month we have now. There’s also the effect in addition to all this, the treasury bonds that banks hold as their reserve requirements will have diminished greatly as the face value drops dramatically and this will put much the banking industry into an insolvent condition.

This almost complete collapse of the banking system will force the government to take over almost 100% of the banking system. Considering the faith that people have in their government right now I would say this will cause a physical run on the banks much like in the 1930s Great Depression. Here comes the biggest problem of all, if these physical runs take place there is nowhere as near enough paper money or cash in our system to cover the withdrawals. If just 10% percent of the people with bank accounts try to get their money out, all the banks and all at once the banking system will run out of money and collapse in two or three days. Banks are only required to keep about 7% of their total deposits in cash. A lot of this so-called cash reserve is invested in treasury bills. Just like back in the 1930s most of the money was loaned out and does not exist anymore. As soon as the paper money or digitized money runs out and it will only take a few days, all the banks will close. There was a run like this on a bank in California in 2008 with lines outside the door and around the building. I believe the banks name was indie Mac.there was also the unseen run on the banks using computers to transfer money from money market funds into other accounts at local banks. This has been directly attributed to the actual collapse of the credit default swaps that created a $60 trillion loss in the banking system.

If we get a panic like this and there is a physical runs like this, in three days the federal government would have close all the banks and this is exactly what happened in the 1930s Great Depression. Once this occurs and all the banks are closed, the whole economy stops dead in its tracks. This would mean the distribution system would collapse in just a few days and this is probably the worst thing that could take place in all of the things I have discussed.

If the distribution system collapses what does that mean? That would mean that all the gas stations would not have any gas. All the grocery stores would run out of food within a few days and very possibly within a few hours of something like this happening. No jobs will exist anywhere and the unemployment rate would be 100%. This all would be much worse than what happened on the Great Depression of the 1930s. Think about it for a minute; if all the banks were closed and you had a pay check to cash, where would you go to cash it if all the banks were closed. Your pay check would be worthless.

In the Great Depression of the 1930s most people were farmers or self-employed. The country was much more self-reliant back then. The situation we have today with 308 million people in the latest census of 2010 is that more than 50% of the population lives in or around cities and that means over 150 million people will have to migrate to where there is food and water. With large concentrations of huge numbers of people who live in cities and no food in the grocery stores and no farms nearby to get food from. No gasoline to put in your car to go to a farm to buy food or to hunt for your food. This will be much worse than just an economic collapse. With the collapse of the distribution system and closing of the banking system there will be no coal for the power plants and electricity will shortly afterwards just go off-line. This means no television and no entertainment centers in your house will work and no lights or anything else that runs off electricity would completely stop working.

There will be no government of any kind. There will be no police departments, fire departments or emergency services. All the hospitals would be closed. Everything that exists right now will stop if all the banks are closed.

We would literally within 2 to 3 weeks be living in the Stone Age. Every single piece of technology we have would no longer exist. This also means no fresh water supply as it stops with the electricity going off. People cannot live without fresh water to drink for more than three or four days. For survival city dwellers will have to leave the cities in huge numbers, by the tens of millions nationwide. This will be a disaster like mankind has never seen before. This will also be the situation in Europe as well as any developed country that uses large amounts of technology and is dependent upon the world distribution system.

This is all self-created and is primarily due to our politician’s lack of action going back to 2001. It is not George Bush’s fault as he and others like Alan Greenspan warned about this potential for a bank collapse like we finally did have in 2008. This was all self-inflicted and Due to a lack of regulation of the two mortgage banks Freddie and Fannie which are the two biggest mortgage lenders in United States and which are both partially government-owned. This is in fact were all the mortgage-backed securities originated from that caused the collapse of all the worlds banks in 2008. I have a video dated from 2001 it shows Alan Greenspan warning Barney Frank of a problem with Freddie and Fannie and nothing was done from 2001 and even up to now in 2011 these banks have not been regulate.

From what I’ve observed of the Federal Reserve and other government entities reporting on the economy for over 30 years of adjusting interest rates and regulations they are almost always wrong. Could it be that their numbers are so deluded or delusional that decisions based upon their phony baloney headline numbers is why they always overshoot when raising or lowering interest rates in the past? These bad decisions can directly be attributed to all our recessions over the past 30 years that I have been watching the Federal Reserve actions. I seem to know exactly when they’re going too far the day they go too far one way or the other.

The deflation or decrease in price in real estate will be zero help in this scenario as is not any help right now. Unless you’re buying a house the lower prices do not help you at all and should not even be counted in the equation of inflation or deflation under the current economic conditions. Under the current conditions of the housing market banks are requiring large down payments because the value of real estate is still dropping. This isn’t helping anyone.

The banks are also more reluctant to lend to people unless they have very high credit scores. Most activity going on right now in real estate that is being reported in the total housing sales numbers is just people refinancing their existing mortgages, it’s called a short sale. These refinancing numbers are included in the total number of houses being sold. This creates an allusion that things are better than they are. I just talk my buddy who’s been a real estate broker for over 30 years and he told me just what I told you here.

This is not old news it’s been going on for last three years and it’s still the same. If you really want to know what’s really going on in the economy you have to ask the business people on the streets. You cannot believe the propaganda of the news media like MSNBC business Channel who are actually spending all day long trying to get you to invest your money in the stock market. Their advertising base is almost all commodities and stock market brokerage firms and they make money off your money in the form of commissions on trades. Just like a salesman they have an interest in telling you everything you want to hear and everything is great so you will take your money and give it to them so they can make money off your money. If you shake the hand of these sales people you better count your fingers because you’re liable to be missing at least one if not a few.

Summary

Panic selloff in municipal bond markets

Causes panic selloff in U.S. Treasury bond markets

Causes panic selloff in world markets of all kinds

Causes second downturn in collapse of real estate market values

Causes second collapse of the banking system due to even more mortgage defaults

Causes collapse in real estate market due to higher interest rates and lack of affordability

All the above Causes huge layoffs and dramatically higher unemployment.

Higher unemployment causes further mortgage defaults and pushes Banks further into bankruptcy and insolvency.

Severe devaluation in the currency due to a lack of confidence in the government to bring its massive trillion-dollar deficits under control considering their now in excess of $2 trillion a year and growing.

This causes severe devaluation of the currency and much higher prices on commodities imported from overseas and in country. This means the price of gas and food could double or triple.

The doubling of the price of gasoline one which is currently three dollars a gallon and going to six dollars a gallon will by itself destroy what’s left of the economy.

The beginnings of the municipal bond market collapsing could be weeks or just a few months away as the state’s are seeking the right to file bankruptcies just like the cities already have. I believe this municipal bond crash could be the trigger that starts the whole of modern society to collapse. I wonder if the Republicans will be blamed for it. I’ll bet they do. I knew the liberal fringe lame stream news media better than they know themselves. I know what they’re going to do before they even know why they’re going to do it.

Just a little reminder for everyone to date this, today is January 25, 2011. The Democrats took office in January of 2007 and had control of Congress for four years. Everything that is going on right now with huge trillion dollars federal deficits can be very easily traced as 100% the result of the Democrats taking control of Congress in 2007. The banking system collapse of 2008 was from a lack of action from the two banking oversight committees that did nothing about a problem they were warned about at least 17 times starting at the very beginning of the Bush ministration in 2001. . These two banking committees were both chaired by Barney Frank and Chris Dodd. They are both Democrats and legislation to bring things under control and regulate the banks were brought up many times and these two Democrats stopped that legislation from even getting to the floor of Congress to be voted on.

I also believe that the huge deficit spending that the Democrats were orchestrating in 2007 and 2008 as soon as they took control of Congress was sucking all the money out of the banking system worldwide finance there deficit spending. If you look at the record of interest rates you can see how the Federal Reserve was steadily increasing the interest rate just six months after the Democrats took control in 2007 that was to attract the money to finance the runaway spending of the liberal progressive Democratic controlled Congress.

Doing just a little investigation on your own can prove what I’m telling you is the truth. It doesn’t take a genius to figure all this out. On this webpage you can research just about anything to do with government spending and it’s all based on government numbers it’s not my website, it all directly from the Congressional budget office and it supplies the actual downloads of the PDF for federal government spending.

http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_deficit_chart.html

I made a chart that just shows the total numbers of federal government deficits and in this chart you can see how the Democrats went absolutely crazy and I mean absolutely ballistic crazy on spending as soon as they took control of Congress in 2007. The liberal progressive Democrats grew the federal debt by $900 billion the first year they had control of Congress. It is my conclusion that all this was intentional to bring the country to the point of economic collapse and that’s why you need to buy my book and find out what I have observed from the liberal, progressive Democratic Party for over 30 years. This isn’t something I read in a book this is something I experienced in my life as a person who is self-employed and employer since 1978. I didn’t get this from Glenn Beck he was still a teenager when I was experiencing all this stuff as a business owner Glenn Beck was still in school. But Glenn is 100% corect in everything he says about the economy. I think he read my book 2012.

Go look at the chart I made which is a summary made from the prior webpage given or the Congressional budget office numbers. By 1980 when Jimmy Carter was president and the Democrats had control both houses and the Senate and at that time I had already made conclusion that democrats wanted to destroy the country economically and that was 30 years ago. These people have not changed their goal as it is the same now as it was then. They may be different people but I believe they have the same goal as the Democrats that were in office back then in 1980. Jimmy Carter was president from 1977 to 1981 with a democratically controlled Congress they brought this country to its knees. It was as intentional then as it is now from 2007 to 2011. It is just a repeat of history and history always seems to repeat itself.

See my chart here federal deficit spending from 2001 to 2012.

https://jamesgarrett42.wordpress.com/2011/01/18/will-america-survive/

You won’t even be able to paper your walls with the worthless paper money because most of the money only resides on computer hard drives as digital money. This means you can’t even joke about papering your wall with the worthless paper dollars. Maybe you can gather up all the hard drives and make something out of them.

2012 What's really going to happen in 2012

Read Full Post »

Older Posts »